中国区域碳中和的技术溢出与能源回弹:机理、实证及启示  

Technology spillover and energy rebound of carbon neutralityin eight regions of China:Theory,empirical analysis and enlightenment

作　　者：刘平阔 桂俊卿 LIU Ping-kuo;GUI Jun-qing(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学经济与管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2023年第12期3003-3023,共21页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72103128)。

摘　　要：构建能源回弹的优化测算模型和影响因素评估模型,对2007—2022年全国整体以及八大综合经济区的能源回弹趋势进行分析。研究表明:(1)在碳中和情境中,区域短、长期能源回弹在考虑技术溢出的条件下均呈现“逆反效应”,而非传统意义上的“完全回弹”或“部分回弹”;(2)碳中和技术创新的节能降耗效果在区域层面会因能源需求增长被部分或全部抵消,且各区域能源回弹对技术溢出的敏感性存在明显差异,局部能源安全与能源转型的压力加剧;(3)相较于正向影响因素,产业结构、低碳化水平、碳排放绩效压力和劳动力基数等负向影响因素才是破除供给侧能源转型与能源安全长期压力的有效“抓手”,而环境治理可在一定程度上释放能源需求侧的转型压力。If the technology spillover in the carbon neutrality is ignored,the energy reboundeffect will be measured in a seriously biased way,which is misleading the policy design andinstitutional arrangement for the energy transition&energy security.Hence at the regionallevel,there are two key issues need to be addressed:Will the energy transformation driven bycarbon neutrality exacerbate the effect of such an"energy rebound"?How to correctly identifythis"energy rebound"and scientifically analyze the externalities of technological innovation inthe carbon neutrality process based on regional"technology spillovers"?Based on the logicalstructure and normative analysis on studying the relationship between energy rebound andtechnology spillover in terms of carbon neutrality,tentatively the production function is nowbeing well reconstructed and optimized from multiple perspectives which include theproduction factors,the efficiency internalization,as well as the institutional performance.Inour improved production function,the energy efficiency is internalized as an important factor,and the comprehensive performance(as the dependent variable)is composed of both theexpected output and the unexpected output.The improved calculation model is explored formeasuring the energy rebound,whilst the impact factor assessment model is built too.Then adynamic comparative analysis of the energy rebound trend for both China and its eightcomprehensive economic regions is conducted by using the panel data from 2007 to 2022.Theresults show that:(1)In the specific context of carbon neutrality,the regional short-and longterm energy rebound considering the technology spillovers is proven as a"Backfire Effect"rather than a"Full Rebound Effect"or a"Partial Rebound Effect".(2)The energy-saving andconsumption-reducing effects of the technological innovations oriented by carbon neutrality arepartially or fully offset by the energy demand growth at the regional level,and the sensitivity ofenergy rebound to technological spillovers varies significantly acro

关 键 词：碳中和 生产函数的重构与改进 技术溢出效应 能源回弹效应 优化测算模型 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F426.2[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X321