长三角城市群碳排放效率与高质量发展的时空耦合特征及影响因素  

Spatio⁃temporal Coupling Characteristics and Driving Factors of CarbonEmission Efficiency and High⁃quality Development inYangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：吴小妮 管卫华[1,2] 张惠 吴连霞[3] WU Xiao-ni;GUAN Wei-hua;ZHANG Hui;WU Lian-xia(School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Development and Utilization of Geographic Information Resources of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210023,China;Population Research Institute,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京210023 [3]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200241

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2023年第11期2273-2284,共12页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJAZH023);国家社科基金青年项目(19CRK010);江苏高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2020SJA0247);南京市社会科学基金专项(23YB02);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX23_1640)。

摘　　要：区域碳排放效率与高质量发展的空间差异特征显著,动态把握两者时空格局演变和耦合发展态势对推动长三角城市群均衡发展具有重要意义。以长三角城市群26个地级市为研究对象,构建测度碳排放效率与高质量发展的指标体系和耦合度模型,运用熵权法、SBM模型和Tobit面板模型揭示了2000~2020年长三角城市群碳排放效率和高质量发展的宏观格局、两者耦合发展的时空分异及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)长三角城市群碳排放效率和高质量发展年际变动呈现出同步的波动中上升趋势;前者宏观格局逐渐呈现出“南北”差异,而后者的“东西”差异逐渐明晰;(2)碳排放效率与高质量发展耦合度和耦合协调度处于初级协调及以上时期,总体呈上升趋势,不同省市两者差距经历了先缩小后扩大的变动;两者宏观格局差异显著,但均呈现出高值区向核心城市及周边收缩的特征,“东南-西北”向差异显化;(3)经济基础、政府干预、城镇化率及产业结构对耦合协调度具有促进作用,碳排放强度则具有负向约束作用。最后,在推动两者协同互促、加强区域间协同互动及制定差异化的发展路径等方面提出建议。The spatial differences between regional carbon emission efficiency and high⁃quality development are significantt is to dynamically grasp the evolution of the spatial and temporal patterns and the coupling development trend of the two to promote the balanced development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Taking 26 prefecture⁃level cities as the research objects,this paper construct the index system and coupling degree model to measure carbon emission efficiency and high⁃quality developmententropy weight method,SBM model and Tobit panel model to reveal the macro pattern of carbon emission efficiency and high⁃quality developmentfrom 2000 to 2020 he spatial and temporal differences of their coupling development and the driving factors.The results as follows:(1)The inter⁃annual changes in carbon emission efficiency and high quality development show a synchronized upward trend fluctuation;he former gradually show“North⁃South”differences in macro patterns,while the latter’s“East⁃West”differences gradually becme.(2)The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of carbon emission efficiency and high⁃quality development in the period of primary coordination and above,with an overall upward trendhe gap between the two in different provinces and cities haexperienced a change of first narrowing and then widening.The macro pattern of the two differsignificantly,but both show the characteristics of contraction of the high⁃value area to the core cities and the periphery,and the“southeast⁃northwest”difference is obvious.(3)Economic base,government intervention,urbanization rate and industrial structure contribute to the degree of coupling coordination,while carbon emission intensity haa negative constraining effect on it.Finally,suggestions put forward in terms of promoting synergy between the two,strengthening inter⁃regional interaction and differentiated development paths.

关 键 词：碳排放效率 高质量发展 耦合协调度 长三角城市群 TOBIT模型 

分 类 号：K921[历史地理—人文地理学]