河南省降雪识别及气候变化下降雪量对气温和降水的响应  

Snowfall identification and response of snowfall to temperature and precipitation under climate change in Henan province

作　　者：张凡 丁建芳[1,2] 杨敏 彭冲[1,2] ZHANG Fan;DING Jian-Fang;YANG Min;PENG Chong(Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,China Meterological Administration,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Weather Modification Center of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省人工影响天气中心,郑州450003

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第6期714-722,共9页Climate Change Research

基　　金：河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究基金项目(KQ202222)。

摘　　要：使用河南省119个国家气象站点近55年(1968—2022年)的气象资料,利用日天气现象对日降水相态进行标记,使用REOF(旋转经验正交展开)方法对降雪量标准化场进行分区,运用加入指数方程拟合的双温度阈值法,构建本地化分区域的降雪识别方法,通过降雪识别得到较为准确的降雪量后,量化气候变化背景下降雪量对气温和降水的响应。结果表明,加入指数方程拟合的双温度阈值法在河南省降雪识别中具有较高的精度,降雪识别指数方程可以较好地估算年降雪量,各区域相关系数均超过0.97,平均相对误差绝对值均小于2.7%。气温的上升对降雪量的减少呈正贡献,且作用强度由南向北逐渐转弱,降水的减少对降雪量的减少呈正贡献。在气候变暖背景下,1994年后气温的显著增加对降雪量的影响起主要作用,加之低温降水概率减小,使河南省降雪量整体呈减少趋势。Based on the meteorological data of 119 national meteorological stations in Henan province in recent 55 years(1968-2022),the daily precipitation phase was labeled by daily weather phenomena,and the standardized snowfall fields were divided by the REOF(Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function)method.A local regional snowfall identification method was established by using the double temperature threshold method fitted with the exponential equation.After obtaining more accurate snowfall amount through snowfall identification,the response of snowfall to temperature and precipitation under the background of climate change was quantified.The results show that the double temperature threshold method fitted with the exponential equation has a high accuracy in snowfall identification in Henan province.The exponential equation can estimate the annual snowfall well.The correlation coefficient in each region is more than 0.97,and the absolute value of the average relative error is less than 2.7%.The increase of temperature contributed positively to the decrease of snowfall,and the effect intensity gradually weakened from south to north,and the decrease of precipitation contributed positively to the decrease of snowfall.Under the background of climate warming,the significant increase of temperature after 1994 played a major role in the influence of snowfall,and the probability of low temperature precipitation decreases,resulting in the overall decreasing trend of snowfall in Henan province.

关 键 词：双温度阈值法 降雪识别 指数方程 气候变化 

分 类 号：P426.63[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]