基于SCS-CN模型的暴雨情景下河南省历史遗存淹没风险评价  

Inundation risk assessment of historical relics in Henan province under rainstorm scenarios based on SCS-CN model

作　　者：董宏杰 董文杰 曹迎春 张艺凡 DONG Hong-Jie;DONG Wen-Jie;CAO Ying-Chun;ZHANG Yi-Fan(School of Architecture,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Architecture and Art,Hebei University of Architecture,Zhangjiakou 075000,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212003,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑学院,天津300072 [2]河北建筑工程学院建筑与艺术学院,张家口075000 [3]江苏科技大学土木工程与建筑学院,镇江212003

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第6期738-748,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52278017);天津市研究生科研创新项目(2022BKY089);河北省省属高等学校基本科研业务费研究项目(2021QNJS03);河北省高等学校科学技术研究青年基金项目(QN2022081);河北省体育局体育科技研究项目(2024CY04);河北建筑工程学院教育教学改革研究与实践项目(2022JY108)。

摘　　要：暴雨灾害是威胁城市生命财产安全的常见灾种,暴露于其中的历史遗存更是面临着极大的淹没风险。科学预测历史遗存的淹没风险,及时开展抢救工作,可有效提升救援效率。以河南省域范围内154个历史遗存点为研究对象,基于SCS-CN模型和GIS空间分析技术,通过水文分析提取出65个包含历史遗存点的汇水区,进行暴雨情景下历史遗存淹没风险的研究。首先,计算每个汇水区内历史遗存被淹没的临界降雨量;然后,选取“7∙20河南暴雨”期间的“7月20日08时—21日06时”“7月20日00时—21日24时”“7月18日00时—21日24时”3个时间段,将临界降雨量与真实降雨情景进行对比,分别识别具有淹没风险的区域;最后,对历史遗存点的淹没风险进行系统评价。得到以下结论:(1)连续多日极端降雨易于在汇水区内形成大范围积水,并且随着连续降雨时间的延长,历史遗存面临的淹没威胁也愈发严重;(2)临界降雨量比较低的汇水区在暴雨来临时更易被淹没,历史遗存的淹没风险也相对较高;(3)地形条件和发展程度成为影响极端降水条件下历史遗存淹没风险的重要因素,风险较高的区域多位于地势低洼且发展程度比较高的地区;(4)规划中应重点关注高风险点及其对应的汇水区域,实行分级分类防控、构建防洪救灾系统、建立风险预警机制,有效提升城市韧性。研究成果希望能为暴雨灾害情景下的历史遗存应急管理提供有益借鉴。Rainstorm disaster is a common kind of disaster that threatens the safety of urban life and property,and the historical relics exposed therein are faced with the great inundation risk.Scientifically predicting the inundation risk of historical relics and carrying out rescue work in time can effectively improve the rescue efficiency.Taking 154 historical relics in Henan province as the research object,based on SCS-CN model and GIS spatial analysis technology,65 catchment areas containing historical relics were extracted through hydrological analysis to study the risk of historical relic inundation under rainstorm scenarios.Firstly,the critical rainfall of historical relics submerged was calculated in each catchment area.Then,comparing with the actual rainfall scenarios during the“July 20 Henan Rainstorm”period,from 8꞉00 on July 20 to 6꞉00 on July 21,from July 200꞉00 to 2124꞉00,and from July 180꞉00 to 2124꞉00,the areas with inundation risk were identified respectively.Finally,the inundation risk of historical relics was systematically evaluated.The results show that:(1)Extreme rainfalls for many consecutive days can easily create widespread ponding in the catchment area,and as the duration of continuous rainfall increases,the threat of inundation of historic relics becomes more severe;(2)The catchment areas with low critical rainfall are more likely to be flooded when rainstorm comes,and the inundation risks of historical relics in these areas are relatively high;(3)Topographic conditions and development degree have become important factors affecting the inundation risk of historical relics under extreme rainfall scenarios,so that areas with high risk are mostly located in low-lying areas with high development degree;(4)The planning should focus on high-risk points and their corresponding catchment areas by implementing classified prevention and control,building a flood control and disaster relief system,and establishing a risk early warning mechanism to effectively improve the urban resilience.The

关 键 词：暴雨 淹没风险 历史遗存 SCS-CN模型 河南省 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TU984.116[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] K872[历史地理—考古学及博物馆学]