2007—2021年上海莘庄太阳最大入射辐射变化特征和环流背景  

Variation of maximum incident solar radiation in Xinzhuang of Shanghai during 2007-2021 and associated circulation backgrounds

作　　者：刘丽 赵春江 祝从文[1] 张书萍 LIU Li;ZHAO Chunjiang;ZHU Congwen;ZHANG Shuping(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Solar Energy Research Institute,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China;Jinkai Xinneng Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]上海电力大学太阳能研究所,上海200090 [3]金开新能科技有限公司,北京100044

出　　处：《气象学报》2023年第6期1018-1030,共13页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U2242205、41830969)。

摘　　要：利用2007—2021年上海莘庄太阳能辐射仪(型号:EKO-MS6020)接收到的逐月最大太阳辐射(MSR)资料,以水平0°角辐射仪观测值为参考,分析了0°—25°不同仰角观测的MSR差异,评估了台站观测、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)大气再分析(ERA5)资料与太阳能辐射仪观测辐射的差别。在此基础上,讨论了MSR与天气要素的关系及发生的环流背景和天气尺度演变特征。结果显示,上海莘庄的MSR季节波动范围为800—1300 W/m^(2),峰值和谷值分别出现在5月和12月。观测的最大MSR值接近太阳常数,年际变化幅度约200 W/m^(2)。相对于0°角观测,当太阳能板倾角为5°—20°时,平均每个月MSR可多获得50—250 W/m^(2)辐射,最佳倾角为20°。ERA5相对于观测MSR存在明显低估,年平均低估约200 W/m^(2)。虽然两者的季节变化相关系数高达0.88,但是在空间和时间上存在显著差异,年际变化相关并不显著。针对与MSR时间相差小于3 d的大气环流背景合成,春、夏、秋、冬四季的环流结构存在差异,但总体来看,偏北风加强、云量偏少、温度偏高的天气过程有利于MSR出现。Seasonal evolution of maximum solar radiation(MSR)from monthly observations of the solar radiometer(model:EKO-MS6020)at 0°—25°angles in Xinzhuang of Shanghai is analyzed and the MSR biases of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)ERA5 reanalysis product during 2007—2021 are evaluated.In addition,linear relationships of MSR with various meteorological variables as well as favorable synoptic circulation backgrounds are revealed.The seasonal fluctuation range of MSR in Xinzhuang of Shanghai is 800—1300 W/m^(2),and the maximum and minimum values appear in May and December,respectively.Results show that monthly MSR is close to the solar constant with an interannual variance of 200 W/m^(2).When the inclination angle is within 5°—20°,the received monthly radiation is about 50—250 W/m^(2)more than that with the angle of 0°.The optimal inclination angle is 20°,corresponding to the best income of MSR.The ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis shows a significant underestimation of MSR with an average annual underestimation of nearly 200 W/m^(2).Although their correlation coefficient is 0.88,it is mainly due to the seasonal cycle.Significant biases of ERA5 appear both in spatial and temporal domains,and their interannual anomalies are not significantly correlated with observations.Based on temporal evolution of synoptic circulation background with a time difference of fewer than 3 d,we find that the synoptic pattern with stronger northerly winds,less cloud cover,and high temperature is generally favorable for MSR,although the circulation structure is different in spring,summer,autumn,and winter.

关 键 词：最大太阳辐射 再分析资料评估 环流型分析 上海莘庄 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]