基于闪电监测数据的台站雷暴日统计检验及其演变特征研究  

A Statistical Test of Station Thunderstorm Days Based on Lightning Location System and Its Evolution Characteristics

作　　者：庞波 朱彪 赖辉煌[4] 林彬彬 刘冰 PANG Bo;ZHU Biao;LAI Huihuang;LIN Binbin;LIU Bing(Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Fuzhou 350028,Fujian,China;State Key Laboratory of Disaster Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350028,Fujian,China;Jiuxianshan Weather Station,Quanzhou Meteorological Bureau,Quanzhou 362599,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建福州350028 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]福建省气象灾害防御技术中心,福建福州350028 [4]福建省九仙山气象站,福建泉州362599

出　　处：《高原气象》2023年第6期1604-1614,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金项目(2022J011075);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42075088);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-B07);国家电网公司总部科技项目(5500-202221143A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：为研究雷电资料延续性及其气候演变特征,建立了基于闪电监测资料的台站雷电日计算模型。分别选取时段为1982-2013年的人工观测雷暴日和2011-2021年的闪电定位仪监测雷电日资料,结合T检验和F检验结果判断出与人工观测最优匹配的闪电定位仪监测半径范围,在此基础上,采用惩罚最大F检验(PMFT)法对福建省66个台站雷暴日资料做连续性检验且对比不同监测半径下PMFT检验值的通过率和观测与监测的均方差进而得到闪电定位仪的最优匹配监测半径。以最优匹配监测半径为基准采用EOF经验正交函数法(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和9点平滑系数分析福建省1982-2021年近40年雷电日时空演变特征及影响雷暴活动因素。结果表明:(1)基于闪电监测资料的台站雷电日与人工观测雷暴日相匹配监测半径范围为12~20 km内,全省66个台站雷电日连续性检验通过率(未通过率)为80.30%(19.70%);(2)福建省近40年雷电日空间分布不均匀,呈现西南部雷暴活动强而东部沿海岸雷暴活动弱特征,EOF前三个模态的空间型分别为“全省反相位”、“东北-西南地区反相位”、“内陆沿海地区反相位”,其中第一模态的方差贡献率为55%,作为EOF分解的主要模态对应时间系数的9点平滑曲线反映出福建省中西部和南部在1998年前和2016年之后雷电活动频繁,在此时段期间雷电活动较少;(3)ENSO对福建省雷暴活动规律有一定的影响,其中ENSO、厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜和福建省连续性雷电日的超前滞后相关系数分别是43.80%、55.22%、14.21%。综上所述,通过检验分析得到半径12 km可作为福建省人工观测雷暴日资料与闪电定位监测资料衔接的台站参考半径,解决福建省闪电资料延续性的问题。研究雷电活动规律对于提升雷电灾害防御能力有重要意义。对比研究几类气候事件,厄尔尼诺对福建省雷暴活动规律影响较大,将其考虑作To research the continuity and climate evolution characters of station lightning data in Fujian Province,the paper established the calculation model based on Lightning Location System.The data sorted to thunderstorm days by observed(1982-2013)and by Lighting Location System(2011-2020)were used respectively.The paper determined the monitoring radius of lightning Location System that best matches the manual observation Combined with the T test and F test results.On this basis,the maximum penalty F test(PMFT)method was used to test the continuity of thunderstorm daily data from 66 stations in Fujian Province,and the passing rate under different monitoring radius and the mean square error of observation and monitoring were compared to obtain the optimal matching monitoring radius of Lightning Location System.Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)and 9-point smoothing coefficients were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics in Fujian Province during 1982-2021 under the optimal matching radius and the factors influencing the activity pattern of thunderstorm days.The results show that:(1)The optimal matching radius between Lightning Location System is 12 km,and the passing rate(failed rate)of the(PMFT)test of 66 stations in the province is 80.30%(19.70%);(2)The spatial pattern of thunderstorm days in Fujian Province during 1982-2021 is uneven,which are characterized that thunderstorm activity is stronger in the southwest then east coast,The spatial patterns of the three modes of EOF mainly include"province-wide Province-wide negative phase","northeastsouthwest Province-wide negative phase",and"inland coastal Province-wide negative phase".The first mode variance contribution rate is 55%,which can be the major mode,its 9-point smoothed curves and time coefficients characterize the Midwest and South have more lightning activity before 1998 and after 2016,and less lightning activity during 1998-2016;(3)ENSO has a certain influence on the thunderstorm activity pattern in Fujian Province,and the correl

关 键 词：雷暴日 最优匹配半径 T检验 F检验 PMFT检验 

分 类 号：P446[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]