基于WRF模式的雷电潜势预报方法研究  

ESTABLISHMENT AND TEST OF A LIGHTNING POTENTIAL PREDICTION INDEX

作　　者：欧建芳 祁海霞 王海涛 OU Jian-fang(Qinghai meteorological disaster prevention technology center,Xining Qinghai 810001,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省气象灾害防御技术中心,青海西宁810001 [2]青海省黄南州气象局,青海同仁811399

出　　处：《青海草业》2023年第4期47-52,共6页Qinghai Prataculture

基　　金：闪电资料在雷暴多尺度分析和临近预报中的应用QFZ-2021-ZL46。

摘　　要：为了提高青海省雷电预警预报水平,本文利用中尺度预报模式WRF对发生在青海省境内的2次伴随有闪电的强对流天气过程进行模拟,引入雷电潜势预报指数LPI,通过模式模拟的雷电潜势预报指数LPI值和闪电实测值的对比分析,并将该指数在雷电天气案例中应用。结果表明:模式模拟的指数和闪电实测在时间分布上是一一对应;在空间分布上,其模式模拟的LPI值与实况闪电在发展趋势上一致,但在区域上有偏差,故可以进行雷电的密度预报。In this paper,the mesoscale forecasting model WRF is used to simulate two strong convective weather processes accompanied by lightning in Qinghai Province,so as to improve the lightning early warning and forecasting as well as the lightning data application in Qinghai Province.Then,acomparative analysis is carried out between the simulatedlightning potential forecasting index(LPI)and the observed lightning,and appplg this index in lightning weather cases.Results show that the simulated LPI corresponds well to the observed lightning in time.Besides,the value of simulated LPI tends to be consistent with the observed lightning density,but there are someminor differences in the locations.Therefore,the LPI could be used to forecast the lightning density.

关 键 词：WRF模式 雷电 预报指数 分析 试验 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]