RAMS在复杂地形下的次百米级预报效果检验  

Validation of RAMS for Sub-hundred-meter Forecasting in Complex Terrain

作　　者：杨智灵 郭在华[1,2] 史磊 赵金玲 何梦雨 刘洪晓 YANG Zhiling;GUO Zaihua;SHI Lei;ZHAO Jinling;HE Mengyu;LIU Hongxiao(Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;CMA.Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sounding-KLAS,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学,成都610225 [2]中国气象局大气探测重点实验室,成都610225

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2023年第4期27-34,共8页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目(2022YFG0234)。

摘　　要：利用区域大气模式系统(Regional Atmospheric Modeling System,RAMS),对2022年2月15—19日北京延庆地区进行每12 h次百米级网格预报,并选取8个站点的风、降水、温度等气象要素对预报效果进行检验评估。结果表明:RAMS预报温度和风向准确率较高,相较其他模式预报系统,其准确率排名靠前且趋于稳定;晴雨预报准确率为71%,降水预报具有一定可信度;相对湿度在预报中准确率偏低,有待进一步改善;复杂地形及模式中地形海拔高度刻画不真实、模式系统误差、天气条件等因素对各气象要素预报有着不同程度的影响;RAMS在复杂地形下的次百米级预报还存在不足之处,可利用同化和订正技术提高预报准确率。Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(RAMS),the 12-hourly sub-hundred-meter-scale grid forecasts for Yanqing area of Beijing from February 15 to 19,2022 were conducted,and the meteorological elements such as wind,precipitation,temperature selected from at eight stations in Yanqing were examined.The results show that RAMS forecasts has a higher accuracy in predicting temperature and wind direction,and compared with other model forecasting systems,its accuracy ranks high and tends to be stable.The accuracy of clear rainfall forecasts is 71%,and precipitation forecasts have a certain degree of credibility;the accuracy of relative humidity in the forecast is low and needs to be further improved.The complex terrain and unrealistic terrain elevation portrayal in the model,systematic errors of the model,and weather conditions have different degrees of influence on the prediction of each meteorological element.There are still inadequate for sub-hundred-metre forecasts of RAMS in complex terrain,and assimilation and correction techniques can be used to improve the accuracy of RAMS forecasts.

关 键 词：RAMS 复杂地形 次百米级预报 气象要素 预报效果检验 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]