农村金融机构商业化改革对县域非农就业的影响——基于农信社改制农商行的准自然实验研究  

The Impact of Commercialization Reform of Rural Financial Institutions on County-level Non-farm Employment--A Quasi Natural Experimental Research on the Restructuring of Rural Credit Cooperatives Into Rural Commercial Banks

作　　者：吴本健[1] 谭睿琦 荣奕源 WU Ben-jian;TAN Rui-qi;RONG Yi-yuan

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《农村金融研究》2023年第10期58-69,共12页Rural Finance Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“新时期的小额信贷与相对贫困治理:理论反思、机制分析及路径优化”(编号:72073151);北京社会科学基金重点项目“缓解相对贫困的长效机制及其北京应用研究”(编号:21JJA002);国家社会科学基金重大项目“社会主义核心价值观融入脱贫攻坚长效机制研究”(编号:20VHJ005);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目“精准扶贫与互联网扶贫的实施机制与效果评估研究”(编号:71661147001)的研究成果。

摘　　要：农民非农就业是增强其内生发展动力、巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果的重要保障。作为县域资金供给的主力军,农村金融机构的商业化改革会对县域非农就业产生怎样的影响?论文在理论分析的基础上,基于2010-2019年全国982个县域农信系统(农村信用社、农村商业银行、农村合作银行)的面板数据,利用农村信用社(以下称“农信社”)改制农村商业银行(以下称“农商行”)这一准自然实验,建立渐进DID模型,探究农村金融机构商业化改革对县域非农就业的影响。研究发现:农村金融机构商业化改革通过增加非农部门劳动力需求与扩大部门间劳动力报酬相对差异的“拉力”,以及农业部门资本替代劳动力的“推力”,对县域内非农就业产生正向影响;信贷规模与信贷结构在其中发挥了中介作用。进一步研究发现,农村金融机构商业化改革对非农就业的促进效果在非粮食主产区、农业规模化生产水平高的地区和创业活跃度水平高的地区表现得更为明显。Employment is pivotal to people's livelihood.Stabilizing farmers'non-farm employment is the key to enhancing farmers'endogenous development drive and consolidating the triumph of poverty eradication.As the mainstay of the county's capital supply,how will the commercialization reform of rural financial institutions(CRRFI)affect non-farm employment(NFE)on county-level?Using a quasi-natural experiment of restructuring rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks,the panel data of 982 county rural credit systems(rural credit cooperatives,rural commercial banks,and rural cooperative banks)from 2010 to 2019 was used to set up a staggered DID model,in order to investigate the impact of CRRFI on the NFE in counties.The study finds that the CRRFI has a positive impact on NFE in the county through the"pull"of increasing the labor demand in the non-farm sector and expanding the relative differences in intersectoral labor compensation,and the"push"of replacing labor with capital in the agricultural sector,in which the size and structure of credit play a mediating role.Further research found that the promotional effect of the CRRFI on NFE was more pronounced in non-food producing regions,in regions with high levels of large-scale agricultural production and in regions with high levels of entrepreneurial activity.

关 键 词：农村金融机构 农村信用社 商业化改革 非农就业 

分 类 号：F832.35[经济管理—金融学] F323.6F249.21