关中平原城市群脆弱性时空演变与驱动因子  

Research on spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of urban agglomeration vulnerability in Guanzhong Plain

作　　者：徐晨曦 万红莲[1,2] 何若楠 殷鹏 倪敬峰 黄敏 王晓利 Xu Chenxi;Wan Honglian;He Ruonan;Yin Peng;Ni Jingfeng;Huang Min;Wang Xiaoli(School of Geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,Shaanxi,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disasters Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院,陕西宝鸡721013 [2]宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室,陕西宝鸡721013

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2023年第6期111-120,共10页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJA810004);陕西省科技厅软科学研究计划项目(2022KRM028)。

摘　　要：以关中平原城市群作为研究区域,通过熵值法综合测度关中平原城市群的城市脆弱性,并分析其时空演变特征,运用地理探测器探究其驱动因子。结果表明:(1)2004—2018年,在时间上,关中平原城市群城市脆弱性整体呈下降趋势,在空间上呈现四周高中间低的特征,2004年脆弱类型多呈现高度脆弱和较高脆弱;城市间脆弱性差距逐步缩小,趋于稳定低值,城市发展态势良好。(2)地方财政收入、霍夫曼系数和生活垃圾无害化处理率对城市群脆弱性影响逐年增强,固定资产投资密度、科教支出占财政支出比例、人口自然增长率、城镇登记失业率、空气质量良好天数比率、污水处理厂集中处理率、建成区工业废水排放密度对城市群的脆弱性的影响力逐年减弱。(3)各驱动因子间存在交互效应,交互结果对关中平原城市群城市脆弱性影响效果显著。2004年社会环境在很大程度上制约经济规模、城市基础设施、生态情况的发展,对城市群脆弱性的影响力较强。2011年经济结构对城市群的胁迫,是城市脆弱性的主要因素。2018年经济规模是制约城市群发展、影响城市群脆弱性的关键因素,环境污染程度与资源利用情况之间的相互作用对城市脆弱性的牵制力较强。As the research area,the urban vulnerability of Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration is measured comprehensively by entropy value method,and its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics are analyzed and driving factors are explored by Geo-detector.The results showed that:(1)From 2004 to 2018,the urban vulnerability of Guanzhong as a whole shows a decreasing trend in terms of time,which presents characteristics of high around and low in middle in 2004,and vulnerability types mostly present high and higher in space;the vulnerability gap between cities gradually decreases and tends to be stable and low with well development,which laterally reflects that social factors contribute more in influencing the urban vulnerability of Guanzhong.(2)The influence of local fiscal revenue,Hoffman coefficient and harmless treatment rate of domestic waste on urban vulnerability increases year by year,while the influence of fixed asset investment density,ratio of science and education expenditure to fiscal,natural population growth rate,urban registered unemployment rate,and ratio of days with good air quality,centralized treatment rate of sewage treatment plants and industrial wastewater discharge density in built-up areas on urban vulnerability diminishes year by year.(3)There are interaction effects among the driving factors;the interaction results have significant effects on the urban vulnerability of Guanzhong.The social environment largely constrains the development of economic scale,urban infrastructure and ecological situation with a strong influence on urban vulnerability in 2004.The coercing of economic structure to Guanzhong is the main factor of urban vulnerability in 2011.The economic scale is the key factor that constrains development of Guanzhong and affects urban vulnerability,the interaction between degree of environmental pollution and resource utilization has a stronger hold on urban vulnerability in 2018.

关 键 词：城市脆弱性 关中平原城市群 时空演变格局 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F042[经济管理—政治经济学]