人口老龄化、消费倾向与中国居民储蓄率研究  

Study on Population Aging,Consumption Tendency and Savings Rate of Chinese Residents

作　　者：金博 张欣博 JIN Bo;ZHANG Xinbo

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行吉林省分行,吉林长春130051

出　　处：《吉林金融研究》2023年第10期4-8,22,共6页Journal of Jilin Financial Research

摘　　要：十四五期间,我国人口结构即将进入中度老龄化阶段,这势必会对居民,特别是中老年人的储蓄行为产生重要影响。本文通过建立一个两期世代交叠模型,分析行为人的储蓄决策,并基于2000-2021年31个省(直辖市)的面板数据,构建系统GMM模型进行实证研究,深入分析人口年龄结构的变化对我国居民储蓄率的影响。通过研究发现,现阶段老龄化对于居民储蓄率的影响以正向效应为主,老龄化程度的加深会提高储蓄率水平。由此本文认为,健全养老保障体系,发掘银发经济潜力,以及完善生育政策提高人口增长率可以更好地降低居民储蓄率,扩大消费需求。During the fourteenth Five-Year Plan period,the population structure of our country is about to enter the stage of moderate aging,which is bound to have an important impact on the savings behavior of residents,especially the middle and old people.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities directly under the Central Government)from 2000 to 2021,this paper constructs a systematic GMM model to conduct empirical research,and deeply analyzes the impact of changes in population age structure on China's household savings rate.Through the research,it is found that the influence of aging on residents'savings rate is mainly positive,and the deepening of aging degree will increase the savings rate.Therefore,this paper holds that improving the old-age security system,exploring the potential of the silver economy,and improving the birth policy to increase the population growth rate can better reduce the savings rate of residents and expand consumer demand.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 居民储蓄率 系统GMM模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]