新能源汽车补贴政策设计、需求变动与产业技术升级  

New energy vehicles subsidy policy design,demand changes,and industrial technology upgrading

作　　者：郭晓丹[1,2] 蒲光宇 王帆 GUO Xiaodan;PU Guangyu;WANG Fan(Center for Industrial and Business Organization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Liaoning Dalian Institute of Free Trade Zone,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学辽宁(大连)自贸区研究院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国软科学》2023年第10期109-118,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘双碳’目标下新能源汽车政策的减排机制、效果及其优化研究”(22AJY020);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“新兴产业补贴的机理、经济效应与中国政策优化”(22JJD790006)。

摘　　要：以新能源汽车补贴政策为例研究补贴设计对市场均衡、产业技术的差异化影响。研究基于城市级的中国乘用车微观销售数据,应用结构估计方法估算汽车产品的需求参数,在均衡分析的基础上,通过反事实方法模拟不同补贴政策设计对新能源汽车产业技术升级的作用,并基于此评价现有补贴政策,提出政策优化建议。研究发现,新能源汽车补贴政策有效促进了新能源汽车市场推广及产业技术升级,但仍存在政策优化空间。在长航化方面,现行补贴政策设计有效促进了高续航里程技术的发展,但基于里程线性的补贴设计更具效率;在轻量化方面,现行政策引导纯电动汽车向低功率重量比的方向聚集,其原因是基于续航里程的补贴设计促使企业堆叠电池组导致单车重量增加;在节能化方面,补贴对中等电能能耗强度汽车的能源利用效率提升更为明显,对其他能耗的影响相对有限。The subsidies for new energy vehicles have influenced changes in the demand for the automobile market and have further impacted the direction of industrial technological upgrades.Based on passenger car sales data in China from 2016 to 2019,structural estimation methods were applied to estimate the demand parameters of automobile products.Through counterfactual analysis,the role of subsidy policy design in promoting the technological upgrade of the new energy vehicle industry was studied.The research findings indicate that the subsidies for new energy vehicles have indeed promoted the adoption and industrial technological advancement of new energy vehicles,but there is stll room for policy optimization.In terms of extending vehicle range,the existing subsidies have effectively promoted the development of high-mileage technologies,but a linear subsidy based on mileage would be more efficient.In the area of lightweighting,subsidy policies have guided pure electric vehicles towards a direction of lower power-to-weight ratios.

关 键 词：补贴政策设计 市场需求 产业技术 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]