人口普查净覆盖误差估计研究  

Research on the Estimation of Net Census Coverage Error

作　　者：胡桂华[1,2] 黄艳华 吴笛 刘誉环 Hu Guihua;Huang Yanhua;Wu Di;Liu Yuhuan

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学数学与统计学院 [2]重庆工商大学经济社会应用统计重庆市重点实验室 [3]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2023年第11期148-160,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文项目“人口普查登记误差估计”(21FTJB002)。

摘　　要：本文在对双系统估计量进行从理论到实践解读的基础上,建立基于抽样登记和人口移动的双系统估计量,并进行了实证分析。分别采用文献解读法、比较分析法和数理模型法,研究捕获-再捕获模型与双系统估计量的数量逻辑关系,事后计数调查的抽样设计,双系统估计量的性质、构成元素的选择,以及均方误差估计。研究结果表明,构造双系统估计量不能忽视事后计数调查时点与人口普查标准时点之间的人口移动;在选择双系统估计量时,要在获取数据便利程度和估计精度两方面综合权衡比较;在计算总体的双系统估计量抽样方差时,应同时计算各同质人口层的抽样方差和协方差。本文创新之处在于,全面系统地论证双系统估计量的构造原理,从数据上比较事后计数调查三种人口构成法下双系统估计量精度,为我国人口普查误差估计提供参考。This paper aims to establish a dual-system estimator based on sampling registration and population movement,on the basis of an interpretation of the dual-system estimator from theory to practice.Literature interpretation,comparative analysis,and mathematical model methods are used to study the quantitative logical relationship between the capture-recapture model and the dual-system estimator,the sampling design of the post-enumeration survey,the statistical properties,selection of constituent elements,and mean squared error estimation of the dual-system estimator.Research results show that when constructing dual-system estimators,the population movement between the post-enumeration survey time point and the census standard time point cannot be ignored;when choosing a dual-system estimator,it is necessary to comprehensively weigh and compare the convenience of obtaining data and estimation precision;when calculating the sampling variance of the dual-system estimator of the population,in addition to calculating the sampling variance of each homogeneous population stratum,the co-variance between homogeneous population strata should also be calculated.The innovations of the paper are the comprehensive and systematic demonstration of the construction principle of the dual-system estimator,and the comparison between dual-system estimators under three population composition methods in post-enumeration survey from the data precision,which provide reference for estimating errors in China’s Census.

关 键 词：抽样调查 政府统计 捕获-再捕获模型 双系统估计量 分层刀切法 

分 类 号：C829.2[社会学—统计学]