大樱桃结果树枯死的影响因素研究  

Factors Influencing Death of Fruit-Bearing Cherry Trees

作　　者：罗贵斌[1] 胡道贵 杨彦宏[1] 辛恬 LUO Guibin;HU Daogui;YANG Yanhong;XIN Tian(Department of Agriculture and Forestry Technology and Bioengineering,Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College,Hanzhong,Shaanxi 723000,China)

机构地区：[1]汉中职业技术学院农林技术与生物工程学院,陕西汉中723000

出　　处：《陕西农业科学》2023年第12期36-40,48,共6页Shaanxi Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：汉中市汉台区农业科技创新项目(2020kx-14)。

摘　　要：为了探索大樱桃栽培中结果树枯死的影响因素,选取大樱桃结果园为样地,拟定了五个维度的影响因子,参照五点取样法对大樱桃枯死树进行调查,并运用χ^(2)检验和二元Logistic回归分析筛选枯死树的影响因子,构建预测模型。结果表明,栽植深度和排水状况是影响大樱桃结果树枯死的主要危险因子(p<0.05),栽植深度在嫁接口以下比嫁接口以上发生枯死的概率要低,嫁接口以下出现枯死的概率是嫁接口以上的0.115倍;排水状况良好比排水较差时发生枯死的概率要低,排水良好时出现枯死的概率是排水较差时的0.287倍。栽植方式、土壤疏松度以及树势状况对结果树枯死影响不显著(p>0.05),据此构建预测模型,模型拟合优度较高,总体预测准确率90.8%。这一结论可为防止类似栽植条件下的大樱桃结果树枯死提供实践参考。To investigate the factors influencing the death of fruit-bearing cherry trees in cultivation,we selected fruit-bearing cherry orchards as the samples.We examined deceased fruit-bearing trees and usedχ^(2)-test analysis and binary logistic regression analysis to identify key influencing factors.After that,we established a prediction model for dead fruit-bearing trees.The results showed that the planting depth and drainage condition were the main risk factors affecting the withering and death of fruit trees(p<0.05).The probability of death was lower above the grafting interface when the planting depth was below the grafting interface.The probability of death below the grafting interface was 0.115 times higher than that above the grafting interface;The probability of death was lower with better drainage condition,and the probability of death during good drainage was 0.287 times higher than during poor drainage.Planting method,soil porosity,and tree vigor had no significant effect on the withering and death of fruiting trees(p>0.05).Based on the results,a prediction model was constructed with a relatively high fitness and an overall prediction accuracy of 90.8%.This study provides a reference for preventing the withering and death of fruit-bearing cherry trees under similar planting conditions.

关 键 词：大樱桃 枯死树 二元LOGISTIC回归 影响因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：S662.5[农业科学—果树学]