衢州一次局地暴雨天气物理量诊断及极端性预报指标分析  

The Diagnosis of A Local Rainstorm and the Analysis of Extreme Forecast Indexes in Quzhou

作　　者：徐伙 姚余辉 应楚昊 曹隆威 Xu Huo(Meteorological Bureau of Qujiang District,Quzhou City,Quzhou,Zhejiang 324000)

机构地区：[1]衢州市衢江区气象局,浙江衢州324000

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2023年第10期220-222,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

摘　　要：利用国家一般气象站和区域自动站数据,NCEP/NCAR1°×13个再分析资料,ECMWF数值预报产品和ECMWF集合预报极端预报指数EFI产品,多普勒雷达PUP产品和衢州地形资料分析了2019年6月6日局地极端强降水形成的天气形势和物理量场。结果表明:降水前后的螺旋度和水汽通量散度对衢州西部、南部暴雨发生有较好的预测,但对极端性和降水尺度的预报不足。衢州暴雨概念模型的指标矩形中700 hPa U、V分量,850 hPa U、V分量均满足衢州局地暴雨指标,较好地预报了极端强降水的尺度。结合前2种暴雨极端性指标与物理量指标,可以提前判断此次强降水的落区和强度。Using data from national general meteorological stations and regional automatic stations,NCEP/NCAR 1°×The 1°reanalysis data,ECMWF numerical forecast products and ECMWF ensemble forecast extreme forecast index EFI products,Doppler radar PUP products and Quzhou terrain data analyzed the weather situation and physical quantity field of the formation of local extreme heavy precipitation on June 6,2019.It was concluded that the helicity before and after precipitation,water vapor flux divergence had a good prediction of rainstorm in the west and south of Quzhou,but the prediction of extremes and precipitation scale was insufficient.700 hPa,850 hPa,U,V component of the indicator rectangle in the conceptual model of rainstorm in Quzhou,700 hPa V component,850 hPa U,V component of the indicator of V component all meet the local rainstorm indicators in Quzhou,which can better predict the scale of extreme heavy precipitation.Combining the first two extreme indicators of rainstorm and physical quantity indicators,we can better judge the falling area and intensity of this heavy rainfall.

关 键 词：暴雨极端性 水汽通量散度 暴雨模型 地形作用 

分 类 号：P426.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]