1980—2021年甘南高原农牧业热量资源的时空变化分析  

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Changes in Thermal Resources of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in the Gannan Plateau from 1980 to 2021

作　　者：张东琴 贲有生 金满慧 廖倩倩 王殿国 Zhang Dong-qin(Xiahe Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Xiahe,Gansu 747100)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省夏河县气象局,甘肃夏河747100 [2]甘肃省甘南藏族自治州气象局,甘肃甘南747000 [3]甘肃省临潭县气象局,甘肃临潭747500 [4]甘肃省碌曲县气象局,甘肃碌曲747200

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2023年第10期238-240,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

摘　　要：利用甘南藏族自治州8个气象台站1980—2021年的逐日气象观测资料,运用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t检验和ArcGIS普通克里金等方法,研究甘南高原农牧业热量资源的时空变化特征。结果表明:在气候变暖大背景下,42年来,甘南高原≥0℃、≥10℃积温和持续日数均呈现出显著增加的趋势,≥0℃、≥10℃积温均在1997年发生了突变。空间上各要素均表现为东高西低的特点;年代际均值除了高海拔地区,其余各地均表现出自西向东逐渐增加的特征。从持续日数占比来看,合作、临潭、碌曲、夏河、玛曲≥10℃活动积温持续日数占比均小于50%,舟曲、迭部占比大于50%。全球气候变化导致了甘南高原农业热量资源的增加,从而对甘南高原农业产业布局和结构产生影响,需合理利用气候资源,趋利避害,提高农牧业应对气候变化的能力。Using the daily meteorological observation data of 8 meteorological stations in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 1980 to 2021,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of heat resources in agriculture and animal husbandry in Gannan Plateau were studied by using the methods of climate tendency,Mann Kendall test,sliding t test and ArcGIS ordinary Kriging.The results indicate that in the context of climate warming,over the past 42 years,the accumulated temperature and duration of≥0℃and≥10℃in the Gannan Plateau have shown a significant increasing trend,with a sudden change in accumulated temperature of≥0℃and≥10℃in 1997.Each element in space exhibits a characteristic of high in the east and low in the west;Except for high-altitude areas,the interdecadal mean shows a gradual increase from west to east in all other regions.From the proportion of duration days,the proportion of duration days with accumulated temperature≥10℃in cooperation,Lintan,Luqu,Xiahe,and Maqu was less than 50%,while the proportion in Zhouqu and Diebu was more than 50%.Global climate change has led to an increase in agricultural heat resources in the Gannan Plateau,which has an impact on the layout and structure of the agricultural industry in the Gannan Plateau.It was necessary to reasonably apply climate resources,seek benefits and avoid harm,and improve the ability of agriculture and animal husbandry to respond to climate change.

关 键 词：农业热量资源 时空变化 甘南高原 积温 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]