竞争对手的负面盈余意外:一损俱损还是此消彼长?  

Rivals'Negative Earnings Surprises:One Loss All Loss or Wane and Wax

作　　者：董文昊 刘春林[1,2] 杨立成 DONG Wenhao;LIU Chunlin;YANG Licheng(Business School,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210080;Yangtze River Delta Economic and Social Development Research Center,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210080)

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210080 [2]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,江苏南京210080

出　　处：《审计与经济研究》2024年第1期65-74,共10页Journal of Audit & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72072085)。

摘　　要：以2011-2021年A股上市公司为研究样本,聚焦高集中度的垄断行业,以负面盈余意外作为关键事件,以事件公司同行业其他公司作为焦点公司,采用事件研究法探究竞争对手负面盈余意外对焦点公司市场反应的影响。研究发现,在垄断行业中,竞争对手发生负面盈余意外的两天内(竞争对手发布盈余公告的当天和接下来一天),焦点公司的累计超额收益显著为正,且竞争对手的负面盈余意外程度越大,焦点公司的累计超额收益越高,说明竞争对手负面盈余意外在行业内产生了显著的竞争效应。进一步研究发现,产品可替代性以及焦点公司与竞争对手的相似度均会加剧正面溢出,而行业增长对正面溢出具有显著的缓解作用。We utilize a sample of A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2021.Specifically,we focus on the negative earnings surprises of highly-concentrated monopoly industries as key events and examine the impact on other companies within the same industry in a bid to ex-plore the impact of market response from the focus firms.Our findings indicate that,among the monopoly industries,within two days when the rivals'negative earnings surprises occurred(that is,the day the rival disclosed the earnings announcement and the following day),as the cumulative excess returns of the focus firms manifest noticeably positive,the larger the rivals'negative earnings surprises,the higher cumula-tive excess returns of the focus firms,demonstrating the remarkable competitive effect of the rivals'negative earnings surprises within the industries.The further study finds that the product substituability and the resemblance degree between focus firms and the rivals are increas-ing in the positive spillovers while the sectoral growth plays a significant moderating role in this aspect.

关 键 词：盈余意外 竞争动态 垄断行业 产品可替代性 行业增长 公司相似度 

分 类 号：F230[经济管理—会计学]