基于贝叶斯网络的地铁暴雨内涝风险预警模型及协同响应机制研究  

Research on risk warning model and collaborative response mechanism of subway rainstorm waterlogging based on Bayesian network

作　　者：张超[1] 翁文国[2] 陈勇 代宝乾 秦挺鑫[1] ZHANG Chao;WENG Wenguo;CHEN Yong;DAI Baoqian;QIN Tingxin(Sub-institute for Public Safety Standardization,China National Institute of Standardization,Beijing 100191,China;School of Safety Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Shenzhen Urban Public Safety and Technology Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen Guangdong 518046,China;Institute of Urban Safety and Environmental Science,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100054,China)

机构地区：[1]中国标准化研究院公共安全标准化研究所,北京100191 [2]清华大学安全科学学院,北京100084 [3]深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院有限公司,广东深圳518046 [4]北京市科学技术研究院城市安全与环境科学研究所,北京100054

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第12期179-186,共8页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：中国标准化研究院院长基金项目(512020Y-7502);国家自然科学基金项目(72274181,72034004)。

摘　　要：为提升暴雨灾害发生后的风险预警能力,有效化解地铁内涝重大风险,建立基于贝叶斯网络的风险预警模型,分析提出协同预警响应需求。以暴雨导致城市地铁内涝事故为例,建立综合考虑暴雨及预警、地铁站系统结构、客流量、应急措施、事故后果的基于贝叶斯网络的风险预警模型,分析预警信息对事故后果的影响,进而提出风险预警协同响应机制建设需求。研究结果表明:风险预警对提升地铁暴雨内涝事故应急处置的及时性、精准性和协同性具有显著影响,能够有效减小事故后果。研究结果可为建立重大灾害风险预警方法和机制提供参考。To enhance the ability of risk warning after rainstorm disaster,and prevent and resolve the major risk of subway waterlogging effectively,a risk warning model of subway rainstorm waterlogging based on Bayesian network was established,and the collaborative warning response requirements were analyzed and proposed.Taking the urban subway waterlogging incident resulted from rainstorm disaster as an example,the risk warning model based on Bayesian network was established with comprehensively considering the rainstorm and warning,subway station system structure,passage flow,emergency measures and incident consequence.The influence of warning information on the incident consequence was analyzed,and the requirement to construct the risk warning collaborative response mechanism was proposed.The results show that risk warning has significant influence on the timeliness,accuracy and collaboration of emergency disposal on the subway rainstorm waterlogging,and it can effectively reduce the incident consequence.The research results can provide reference for establishing the risk warning method and mechanism of major natural disasters.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 地铁暴雨内涝 风险预警模型 协同响应机制 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X951