基于EC的2022年夏季北京机场雷雨预报检验分析  

Verification Analysis of Summer 2022 Beijing Airport Thunderstorm Forecast Based on EC Model

作　　者：刘雨佳 郝春宏 刘冰 申延美[1,2] 孙砳石 LIU Yu-jia;HAO Chun-hong;LIU Bing;SHEN Yan-mei;SUN Le-shi(Beijing Globe Metroute Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Aeronautical Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 10081)

机构地区：[1]北京全球气象导航技术有限公司,北京100081 [2]中国气象局航空气象重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《黑龙江气象》2023年第4期5-7,11,共4页Heilongjiang Meteorology

摘　　要：为检验EC数值预报模式对雷雨的预报能力,本文选取2022年夏季发生在北京首都和大兴机场的雷雨天气对其进行检验,并挑选一个典型个例进行分析。结果表明:EC的预报准确率在38%-45%,漏报率55%-62%;EC对水汽含量相对小(<70%)的雷雨天气几乎没有预报能力;对雷雨预报影响最显著的因子是水汽含量(空气相对湿度),此外垂直速度、低层辐合、能量条件(对流有效位能)等因素也具有较为明显的作用;大气上干下湿的位势不稳定结构,对非热力型雷雨的预报有一定的指示意义;发生在大气中低层(1000 hPa-650 hPa)的垂直运动对雷雨云团的发展作用也较为明显。To verify the predictive ability of the EC numerical prediction model for thunderstorms,this article selects thunderstorm weather that occurred in the summer of 2022 at Beijing Capital and Daxing Airport to test it,and selects a typical case for analysis.The results show that the prediction accuracy of EC is between 38%and 45%,and the underreporting rate is between 55%and 62%,EC has almost no predictive ability for thunderstorms with relatively low water vapor content(<70%);The most significant factor affecting thunderstorm forecasting is water vapor content(relative humidity of the air),and in addition,factors such as vertical velocity,low-level convergence,and energy conditions(convective effective potential energy)also have a significant impact.The structure of potential instability with the wetter high-level and drier low-level atmosphere has certain indicative significance for the prediction of non thermal thunderstorms.The vertical motion that occurs in the middle and low layers of the atmosphere(1000 hPa-650 hPa)also has a significant impact on the development of thunderstorm clouds.

关 键 词：雷雨 机场 检验 天气分析 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]