航空锂电池模型不确定度量化方法  

Uncertainty Quantification of Aviation Lithium Battery Model

作　　者：郭彦峰 郑先成[2] 郑乃嘉 祁璇 GUO Yan-feng;ZHENG Xian-cheng;ZHENG Nai-jia;QI Xuan(AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Design&Research Institute,Shenyang Liaoning 110035,China;School of Automation,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710129,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳飞机设计研究院,辽宁沈阳110035 [2]西北工业大学自动化学院,陕西西安710129

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2023年第11期52-57,共6页Computer Simulation

摘　　要：航空锂电池模型不确定度决定了以航空锂电池模型为基础的仿真分析结果的可信度。以钴酸锂体系航空锂电池二阶Thevenin等效电路模型为例,通过验证实验,采用基于拉丁超立方抽样技术的蒙特卡洛仿真以概率的形式量化该模型参数不确定度,采用改进型面积度量验证法量化模型形式不确定度,最后采用概率盒的方法将两种来源的不确定度转换到相同的计量单位下。指定置信水平90%,得到模型总不确定度,并根据量化结果指导模型进行改进。The uncertainty of the aviation lithium battery model determines the reliability of simulation analysis results based on the aviation lithium battery model.In this paper,the second-order Thevenin equivalent circuit model of aviation lithium battery based on a lithium cobalt acid system is taken as an example.Through verification experiments,a Monte Carlo simulation based on the Latin hypercube sampling technique was used to quantify the parametric uncertainty of the model in the form of probability,and the modified area metric verification method was used to quantify the model form uncertainty.Finally,the p-box method was used to convert the uncertainty of the two sources into the same measurement unit.The total uncertainty of the model was obtained by specifying the confidence level of 90%,and the model was improved according to the quantitative results.

关 键 词：航空锂电池模型 不确定度量化 拉丁超立方采样 蒙特卡洛仿真 改进型面积度量验证 概率盒 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]