西北太平洋厄尔尼诺年与拉尼娜年的热带气旋路径对比  

Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Paths Between El Nino Years and La Nina Years in the Western Pacific

作　　者：桂辛未 李自强 张水平 孟昭祎 高淑敏 王士成 韩树宗 GUI Xinwei;LI Ziqiang;ZHANG Shuiping;MENG Zhaoyi;GAO Shumin;WANG Shicheng;HAN Shuzong(Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;61741 Troops,Beijing 100094,China;Institute of meteorology and oceanography,National university of defense technology,Changsha 410073,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东青岛266100 [2]61741部队,北京100094 [3]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报》2023年第5期1-7,共7页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：2020-JCJQ-ZD-144-03;61741-ZX-2021-06;61741-ZX-2017-03;GFKD530190312;2020TKLOMZD01。

摘　　要：台风是一种破坏性极强的自然灾害,我国位于太平洋西岸,是受台风影响最严重的国家之一,因此研究西北太平洋热带气旋路径的分布规律对台风预报有着重要意义。本文利用热带气旋最佳路径数据集资料,研究了1949—2017年间厄尔尼诺年与拉尼娜年发生在西北太平洋的热带气旋的数量及路径分布规律,得出了如下的主要结论:厄尔尼诺年的热带气旋年平均产生数量要少于拉尼娜年,但发展至强度为台风及以上的热带气旋所占比例更高;厄尔尼诺年与拉尼娜年热带气旋路径的分布都主要集中在10~20°N的低纬地区,但厄尔尼诺年的热带气旋路径在菲律宾群岛东侧海域更为集中,拉尼娜年的在菲律宾群岛西侧海域更为集中;强度为台风及以上的热带气旋路径分布规律与所有强度热带气旋路径的分布规律相似,但更偏北一些,尤其在厄尔尼诺年偏北现象更为明显;热带气旋增强区域的分布与热带气旋路径的分布规律基本相同。Typhoon is a very destructive natural disaster,China is located in the west coast of the Pacific Ocean is one of the countries most affected by the typhoon,so the study of the distribution of tropical cyclone path in the western Pacific Ocean is of great significance to the typhoon prediction.In this paper,using the data of tropical cyclone best path data sets,studied in 1949-2017 el nino and la Nina years the number of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific and path distribution,the following main conclusions:el nino years less than the number of tropical cyclones year average produce la Nina years,but the strength of development to the typhoon and the proportion of tropical cyclones over higher;El nino and la Nina years of tropical cyclone path are mainly distributed in the low latitude region of 10~20°N,but el nino years of tropical cyclone path in the east of the Philippine islands waters more concentrated,more concentrated in the west side of the Philippine island waters of la Nina years;The distribution pattern of tropical cyclone paths with typhoon intensity and above is similar to that of all tropical cyclone intensities,but is more northerly,especially in el nino years.The distribution of tropical cyclone intensification zones is basically the same as that of tropical cyclone paths.

关 键 词：热带气旋 厄尔尼诺 拉尼娜 台风路径 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P732.6