中国高储蓄率的重新诠释及变化趋势  

The Reinterpretation of China's High Savings Rate and Its Changing Trend

作　　者：吴建军 WU Jianjun

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学中国投资研究中心,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《学术月刊》2023年第12期41-51,共11页Academic Monthly

摘　　要：运用微观思维分析宏观经济现象是经济研究中常见的错误,经典文献认为,一个经济体的储蓄率与消费率具有因果关系便是这种错误的突出表现。从储蓄的内涵与源泉出发,储蓄率与消费率虽然此消彼长,但不构成因果关系,两者都决定于生产结构。基于融资视角下的生产过程,与主流经济学认为储蓄决定投资的认识相反,储蓄是投资的结果而非原因。结合经济运行的实践,中国的高储蓄率是粗放型经济增长模式下,投资规模过大,资本品产出占GDP比重较高的结果。在高质量发展的背景下,中国经济增长将由投资驱动向技术创新驱动转变,投资率及储蓄率均会趋于下降,但生产结构会得到进一步的优化,从而推动消费水平及消费质量的提升。This paper evaluates the misinterpretation of savings rate by micro thinking from the perspective of the connotation of savings.It points out that there is no causal relation between savings rate and consumption rate of an economy,and both of them are determined by production structure.Different from the view of mainstream economics that saving determines investment,this paper demonstrates the logic that investment determines saving from the perspective of financing based on the production process,and shows that saving is the consequence of investment rather than the cause.Combined with the practice of China's economy development,this paper further indicates that China's high savings rate is the result of excessive investment scale and high proportion of capital goods output in GDP under the extensive economic growth mode.Under the guidance of high-quality development,China's economic growth will transform from investment driven to technology innovation-driven,and the investment rate as well as the savings rate will tend to decline.However,the production structure will be further optimized,thus promoting the improvement of consumption level and quality.

关 键 词：高储蓄率 生产结构 增长模式 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]