区域贸易协定与全球价值链重塑——演变、深化与影响机制  

Regional Trade Agreements and GVCs'Reshaping:Evolution,Deepening and Mechanism

作　　者：蓝天[1] 赵锋祥 Lan Tian;Zhao Fengxiang(College of International Economics&Trade,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;School of International Business,Southwest University of Finance and economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学国际经济贸易学院,116025 [2]西南财经大学国际商学院,611130

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第10期103-126,共24页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“大国战略竞争对亚太供应链安全的影响及对策研究”(23BGJ033);国家社科基金重大项目“建设面向东北亚开放合作高地与推进新时代东北振兴研究”(20&ZD098);辽宁省教育科学研究项目“全球价值链视阈下中日韩FTA服务贸易自由化问题研究”(LN2019J11);“中央高校基本科研业务费”研究生科研项目“进口投入上游化对企业出口国内增加值率的影响研究”(JBK2307035)的资助。

摘　　要：基于ADB-MRIO增加值数据和WTO-RTA贸易协定数据,本文从社会网络视角分析了全球价值链的重塑演变过程,实证考察了RTA对成员价值链关系的深化作用。结果表明,2000—2019年,全球价值链网络重塑特征明显,网络结构呈现出中美德三极主导且地域派系划分明显的特点。实证结果显示,RTA能够显著提高成员间价值链强度,深化了成员价值链关系,对全球价值链网络重塑具有导向作用。机制检验表明,深度一体化效应和轴辐效应是RTA影响成员价值链关系重塑的主要渠道。异质性分析表明,RTA对价值链关系的深化效应在南-北型贸易协定间更为明显,并受到两成员地理距离的负向调节,RTA对成员间复杂价值链的深化作用更大,且表现出渐进性和长期稳定特征。本文结论对中国进一步推进自由贸易区战略和价值链网络关系调整提供了有益的政策启示。Using the data of ADB-MRIO and WTO-RTA database,this paper analyzes the evolution of GVCs remolding from the perspective of social network,and examines the impact of RTA on the remolding of GVCs.From 2000 to 2019,the GVCs network has been significantly reshaped,its structure has changed from two poles of virtue to three poles of middle virtue,with division of regional factions.Empirical results show that RTA can sig-nificantly improve the intensity of value-added trade among members,deepen the relationship of member's value chain,guide the remodeling of GVCs network.Deep-integration effect and hub-and-spoke effect are the main mechanisms of RTA affecting the relationship of member GVCs.The deepening effect of RTA is more obvious between South-North type trade agreements,and is negatively regulated by the geographical distance between the two countries.RTA plays a more important role in deepening the relationship between members of the complex GVCs,shows the characteristics of gradual and long-term stability.Our conclusion provides useful policy enlightenment for China to further promote the adjustment of FTA strategy and GVCs network relationship.

关 键 词：区域贸易协定 全球价值链 社会网络分析 自由贸易区战略 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]