大变局下美国两届政府对华政策的差异、影响与启示  

America's Policy towards China under Two Administrations in the Context of Great Changes:Difference,Influence and Enlightenment

作　　者：张文宗[1] 欧歌 Zhang Wenzong;Ou Ge(Institute for American Studies,CICIR;School of International Relations,Beijing Foreign Studies University)

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所 [2]北京外国语大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2023年第6期1-16,154,共17页Peace and Development

基　　金：2022年国家社科基金重点项目“美国政治生态变化和两党对华政策比较研究”(项目编号:22AGJ011)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：百年未有之大变局下,以战略竞争为名全面遏制打压中国成为美国跨党派共识,共和党的特朗普政府开启了遏压进程,民主党的拜登政府则予以延续和发展。在实施该战略的过程中,这两届美国政府在目标、手段等方面存在一定的差异:特朗普政府更为极端和强硬,单边主义色彩更浓,不惜对华发动全面“新冷战”;拜登政府强调与中国长期竞争,在遏压中国的同时注重“管控竞争”。这种差异与两届政府的人事特质,以及两党的竞选策略、意识形态和所代表的利益集团不同有关。两届政府对华政策的差异,因包含一定的党派性因素而具有长期性。2024年大选后,如果共和党掌控白宫,美国对华政策将出现新变化。中国应坚持底线思维和极限思维,根据美国对华政策变化的国内政治机理,根据形势需要处理与美国不同政府、不同党派的关系,以最大限度地维护国家利益。In the context of the great changes unseen in a century, overall containment and suppression of China in the name of strategic competition has become a cross-party consensus in the United States, with the Republican Trump administration initiating the process of suppression and the Democratic Biden administration continuing and developing such a strategy. In the course of implementing this strategy, the two US administrations have certain differences in goals, means and other aspects: the Trump administration was more extreme and tougher, more unilateralist, and even going so far as to launch a comprehensive “new Cold War” against China, whereas the Biden administration has emphasized long-term competition with China, focusing on “competition management” while containing China. These differences are related to the personnel characteristics of the two administrations, their different campaign strategies and ideologies, as well as the interest groups they represent. The differences between the two parties' China policies are long-term because they contain certain structural factors. After the 2024 election, if the Republican Party takes control of the White House, there will be a new change in US policy towards China. China should adhere to the bottom-line thinking and limit-oriented thinking, and handle the relations with different US administrations and parties in the United States according to the domestic political mechanism of the change of the US policy towards China and the needs of the situation, so as to safeguard its national interests to the maximum extent.

关 键 词：中美关系 特朗普政府 拜登政府 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]