大国关系演变对东北亚地区格局的影响及其特征  

The Influence of the Evolution of Major-Country Relations on the Regional Landscape of Northeast Asia and Its Characteristics

作　　者：韩献栋 Han Xiandong(Department of International Politics under the School of Political Science and Public Administration;Center for Korean Peninsular Studies,China University of Political Science and Law)

机构地区：[1]中国政法大学政治与公共管理学院国际政治系 [2]中国政法大学朝鲜半岛研究中心

出　　处：《和平与发展》2023年第6期56-81,156,157,共28页Peace and Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“全面建设社会主义现代化新阶段我国发展的国际安全环境与国际舆论环境研究”(项目编号:21AZD002)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：大国竞争既不是当今时代的底色,也不是大国关系的全部。当前大国之间的竞争虽有所加剧,但与过去不同,很难以纯粹竞争的形态展开。全球化发展所形成的各国经济上的相互依赖以及全球性问题治理上的相互需求使得大国关系既存在竞争更需要互动与合作。值得关注的是大国关系对地区格局的形成及其特征具有直接而重要的影响,可决定一个地区力量格局的基本架构,而地区国家因国内政治因素所导致的政策变化也有可能会改变彼此间的关系组合,从而使地区形势更趋复杂化。东北亚地区大国聚集、同盟关系交错,尤其是中日韩三国在产业上的高度依存、朝韩关系的特殊性、韩国国内政治分化,再加上在该地区有广泛利益的美国不断强化与盟国日本、韩国的三边军事合作等因素都将影响东北亚地区格局走向,并对亚洲乃至世界战略格局产生结构性影响。Major-country competition is neither the background of the current era nor the entirety of major-country relations. Although the current competition between major countries has intensified, unlike in the past, it is difficult to develop in the form of pure competition. The economic interdependence of countries brought about by the development of globalization and the mutual demand in the governance of global issues have made interaction and cooperation more necessary than competition in the relations between major countries. It is worth noting that the relationship between major countries has a direct and important impact on the formation and features of the regional landscape, which can determine the basic structure of regional power pattern, and the policy changes of regional countries due to domestic political factors may also change the alignment of relations between them, thus further complicating the regional situation. Such factors as the gathering of major countries in Northeast Asia, the interlocking of alliance relations, the high industrial interdependence among China, Japan and South Korea, the particularity of DPRK-ROK relations, the political division within South Korea, and the continuous strengthening of trilateral military cooperation by the United States, which has extensive interests in the region, with its allies of Japan and South Korea, will not only affect the development trend of the regional structure in Northeast Asia, but also have a structural impact on the strategic landscape of Asia and the world.

关 键 词：大国关系 大国竞争 “新冷战” 中美关系 俄朝关系 朝韩关系 东北亚 美日韩 

分 类 号：D813[政治法律—国际关系]