缪尔达尔的人口学与马寅初的财政学  

Conflicting Ideas of Demography and Public Finance:Gunnar Myrdal and Ma Yinchu in Their Respective Times

作　　者：蔡昉[1] Cai Fang(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院,100732

出　　处：《经济思想史学刊》2023年第4期3-21,共19页Bulletin of the History of Economic Thought

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国人口转变的独特性、经济影响及政策研究”(批准号:72141310)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文结合缪尔达尔的财政理论,考查他如今已不为学界所熟悉的人口理论及政策主张。通过将其与马寅初的对应理论和政策建议相比较,可以归纳出以下结论。首先,人口发展与一系列经济社会发展因素相关联,因此,解决人口问题需要从广泛的社会政策层面着眼,政策成效受到特定财政理念的影响。其次,缪尔达尔和马寅初面对的人口问题性质不尽相同,所提出的政策建议在方向上也大相径庭。这不仅由于他们处在不同国家的不同发展阶段,更由于他们具有针锋相对的财政理念。因此,如果不改变关于社会福利体制和公共财政模式的根本看法,人口政策并不会由于取向的转变而自然而然奏效。最后,在应对瑞典人口危机涉及的理论和政策讨论中,缪尔达尔推动了认识范式和政策取向的转变,为福利国家建设奠定了关键性的理论基础,搭建了配套性的政策框架。一个国家的成功经验未必可以成功移植到其他国家,但是,鉴于中国人口发展进入的新常态和面临的相应挑战,回顾这段经济史和经济学说史,可以为我们提供有益的借鉴。This paper reviews Gunnar Myrdal's population studies unfamiliar to today's academic circle,together with his theory of public finance and in comparison to Ma Yinchu's corresponding theories and policy suggestions.Conclusions can be summarized as follows.Firstly,demographics is the result of a range of economic and social developments,and the orientation and effectiveness of policy coping with population problem hinge on different concepts of public finance.Secondly,Myrdal and Ma faced differed population problems and hence proposed opposite policy recommendations.This divergence is not merely because they lived in different countries at different stages of development,but more importantly,because their understanding of public finance conflicted one another.Therefore,a fundamental change of views on social welfare and public finance is necessary for a reoriented population policy to lead to a desired result.Finally,in the intense discussions and debates about policies tackling population crisis in Sweden,Myrdal propelled the changes of academic paradigms and policy orientations,laying a theoretical foundation and building a supportive policy framework for the development of welfare state.Although a successful experience from one country cannot ensure a successful transplantation to other countries,an analytical retrospect of the theoretical development and policy discussion in Myrdal's time can still provide useful lessons for China as it encounters the challenges of population decline.

关 键 词：缪尔达尔 马寅初 人口问题 福利国家 财政理念 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学] F092.7F812.9