An Improved CREAM Model Based on DS Evidence Theory and DEMATEL  

作　　者：Zhihui Xu Shuwen Shang Yuntong Pu Xiaoyan Su Hong Qian Xiaolei Pan 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Power Safety Monitoring Technology and Equipment,Shenzhen,518172,China [2]School of Automation Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai,200090,China [3]School of Safety and Management Engineering,Hunan Institute of Technology,Hengyang,421002,China

出　　处：《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》2024年第3期2597-2617,共21页工程与科学中的计算机建模（英文）

基　　金：Shanghai Rising-Star Program(Grant No.21QA1403400);Shanghai Sailing Program(Grant No.20YF1414800);Shanghai Key Laboratory of Power Station Automation Technology(Grant No.13DZ2273800).

摘　　要：Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is widely used in human reliability analysis(HRA).It defines nine common performance conditions(CPCs),which represent the factors thatmay affect human reliability and are used to modify the cognitive failure probability(CFP).However,the levels of CPCs are usually determined by domain experts,whichmay be subjective and uncertain.What’smore,the classicCREAMassumes that the CPCs are independent,which is unrealistic.Ignoring the dependence among CPCs will result in repeated calculations of the influence of the CPCs on CFP and lead to unreasonable reliability evaluation.To address the issue of uncertain information modeling and processing,this paper introduces evidence theory to evaluate the CPC levels in specific scenarios.To address the issue of dependence modeling,the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method is used to process the dependence among CPCs and calculate the relative weights of each CPC,thus modifying the multiplier of the CPCs.The detailed process of the proposed method is illustrated in this paper and the CFP estimated by the proposed method is more reasonable.

关 键 词：Human reliability analysis CREAM uncertainty modeling DEPENDENCE Dempster-Shafer evidence theory DEMATEL 

分 类 号：O17[理学—数学]