考虑惯性效应的货运方式选择行为模型  

Behavior Model of Freight Mode Choice Considering Inertia Effect

作　　者：简文良 代严红 高良鹏 JIAN Wenliang;DAI Yanghong;GAO Liangpeng(College of Transportation,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China)

机构地区：[1]福建工程学院交通运输学院,福州350118

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2023年第6期976-981,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金(2021J05226,2022J01938)。

摘　　要：基于沪宁沿线城市的托运人调查数据,构建考虑惯性效应的混合Logit模型,采用RP/SP融合方法进行参数估计.结果表明:公路托运人选择货运方式存在显著的惯性效应,考虑惯性效应的模型具有更好的数据拟合效果和行为解释能力;不同需求特征群体存在显著的惯性效应差异,货主、轻泡货物和中短运距货物表现出更强的坚持选择公路倾向;忽视公路托运人惯性效应,会错估改善铁路运输时间和费用后的“公转铁”潜力,表现为将高估铁路分担率的费用弹性和低估铁路分担率的时间弹性.Based on the shipper survey data of cities along Shanghai-Nanjing,a mixed Logit model considering inertia effect was constructed,and the parameters were estimated by RP/SP fusion method.The results show that there is a significant inertia effect in the choice of freight mode by road shippers,and the model considering inertia effect has better data fitting effect and behavior explanation ability.There are significant differences in inertia effects among different demand groups.Shippers,light-bubble goods and short-distance goods show a stronger tendency to insist on choosing roads.Ignoring the inertia effect of highway shippers will misjudge the potential of“revolving iron”after improving railway transportation time and cost,which is manifested in overestimating the cost elasticity of railway sharing rate and underestimating the time elasticity of railway sharing rate.

关 键 词：综合运输 货运方式选择 RP/SP数据融合 “公转铁” 惯性效应 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]