琼州海峡客滚船运输水域船舶交叉碰撞事故概率研究  

Research on the Probability of Ship Cross Collision Accidents inthe Passenger Ro Ship Transportation Waters of Qiongzhou Strait

作　　者：陈宁[1,2,3] 王绍凡 王千千 CHEN Ning;WANG Shaofan;WANG Qianqian(School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Sanya Science and Education Innovation Park of Wuhan University of Technology,Sanya 572025,China;State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology Safety,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通与物流工程学院,武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学三亚科教创新园,三亚572025 [3]武汉理工大学水路交通控制全国重点实验室,武汉430063

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2023年第6期1166-1172,共7页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：海南重大科技项目(ZDKJ2020012);配套资助项目(SKJC-2022-PTDX-022);开放基金项目(2020KF0051)。

摘　　要：文中采用ArcGIS绘制了2023年1月19日琼州海峡水域的船舶AIS轨迹图,分析该水域交通流结构和特征参数.利用Arena构建新海港至徐闻港船舶交叉碰撞仿真模型,经仿真得到06:00—07:00时段、13:00—14:00时段和22:00—23:00时段客滚船与穿越船舶发生碰撞概率较高.Using ArcGIS,the AIS trajectory map of ships in this water area on January 19th,2023 was drawn,and the traffic flow structure and traffic flow characteristic parameters in this water area were analyzed.The simulation model of ship collision between Xinhai Port and Xuwen Port was built by Arena.The simulation results show that the probability of collision between ro-ro passenger ship and crossing ship is high at 06:00-07:00,13:00-14:00 and 22:00-23:00.

关 键 词：客滚船 穿越船舶 船舶交通流 交叉碰撞 

分 类 号：U692.4[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]