基于农业水灾解析河南省雨涝事件的时空演变特征  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Rain-waterlogging Events in Henan Province Based on the Analysis of Agricultural Flood Situation

作　　者：陈家栋 黄进[2] 张金池 CHEN Jiadong;HUANG Jin;ZAHNG Jinchi(Co-innovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China/Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration of Jiangsu Province/School of Forestry,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037;School of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044)

机构地区：[1]南方现代林业协同创新中心/江苏省水土保持与生态修复重点实验室/南京林业大学林学院,南京210037 [2]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第35期125-133,共9页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“多源气象资料融合技术研究与产品研制”(2018YFC1506606)。

摘　　要：河南省是中国重要的粮食主产区,分析雨涝事件的时空演变特征对保障区域粮食安全有着重要意义。依托研究区1978—2019年间农业水灾受灾率、成灾率以及逐日降水量等资料,运用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)探求了实际灾情与多种类型降雨涝指数的可能关系。在此基础上,分析了关键致灾因子的时空演变特征及其对大尺度海洋—大气环流指数的响应。结果表明:(1)EEMD精准地从灾情逐年序列分离出年际及年代际波动表征的雨涝强度;(2)雨涝强度与多种降水指数的相关分析表明8月连续7日最大降水量对灾情影响最为显著,其次为9月总降雨日数;(3)致灾因子的空间分布表明河南省南部及西部危险性较高,其趋势分析的结果表明夏季雨涝强度呈现一定的减弱趋势;(4)致灾因子与热带南大西洋海温等环流指数间存在着时滞6~9个月的显著相关性。该研究筛选出了河南省水灾的关键致灾因子,并为提前预判灾情提供的环流信号。Henan Province is an important grain producing area in China,the analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of agricultural flood is of great significance to ensure regional food security.Based on the data of disaster-affected rate and disaster-suffered rate of agricultural flood,daily precipitation in the study area during 1978 to 2019,the possible relationships between the actual disaster situation and various types of rain-waterlogging indices were explored by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD).On this basis,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of key disaster-causing factors and their responses to the large-scale ocean atmospheric circulation indices(LOACI)were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)the rain-waterlogging intensity reflected by inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations were accurately extracted from the annual disaster series by using EEMD;(2)the correlation analysis between rainwaterlogging intensity and various precipitation indices showed that maximum precipitation during consecutive 7 days in August had the most significant impact on disaster,and the next was the total number of rainfall days in September;(3)the spatial distribution of causing-disaster factors indicated that the risk in south and west of Henan were higher,and the rain-waterlogging intensity in summer presented a weakening tendency;(4)there was a significant correlation between the disaster-causing factors and the circulation indices such as Tropical South Atlantic SST with the lag-time of 6 to 9 months.The key causing-disaster factors of flood in Henan province were screened,and the circulation important signals for predicting disaster in advance were provided.

关 键 词：河南省 雨涝事件 集合经验模态分解 环流指数 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]