2010—2021年中国民生发展水平空间演变及驱动因素  

Spatial evolution and driving factors for the people's livelihood development level in China, 2010-2021

作　　者：李琼[1,2] 董梁 邓平安 朱欣怡[3] 刘毅 LI Qiong;DONG Liang;DENG Ping'an;ZHU Xinyi;LIU Yi(School of Business,Jishou University,Jishou 416000,Hunan,China;Academician and Expert Workstation of Jishou University,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Jishou 416000,Hunan,China;School of Management,Suqian University,Suqian 223800,Jiangsu,China;Institute of Strategy Research For the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Guangzhou 510070,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]吉首大学商学院,吉首416000 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所吉首大学院士专家工作站,吉首416000 [3]宿迁学院管理学院,宿迁223800 [4]粤港澳大湾区战略研究院,广州510070 [5]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第12期3037-3057,共21页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42130712);广东省科学院项目(2020GDASYL-20200102002);国家社会科学基金项目(2021BJY099);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2020JJ4503);湖南省教育厅重点项目(22A0372);湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20221099)。

摘　　要：把握民生发展水平的空间分异演变规律对新时代协同区域民生发展、促进共同富裕具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文运用定基极差熵权法、标准差椭圆、核密度估计和空间Markov链、时空地理加权回归等方法,研究2010—2021年中国民生发展水平的空间演变及影响机理。结果表明:①2010—2021年中国民生发展水平大幅提升,四大区域呈东部>中部>西部>东北依次递减特征;民生发展水平空间依赖关系增强,具有明显的高值簇和低值簇集聚特征,长三角和京津冀地区形成了稳定的热点区,四川形成了稳定的冷点区。②中国民生发展水平的重心由东北向西南方偏移,空间方向性增强;全国和四大区域民生发展水平的空间差异性逐渐增强,且全国和西部存在极化趋势;民生水平等级空间转移方向受到邻近省份的影响。③经济、科技、人口老龄化、财政分权对民生产生了正向作用,城镇化为负向效应,且5个因素的影响具有空间分异特征。In the new era,the law of spatial evolution for the development of people's livelihood is of great theoretical and practical significance for fostering people's livelihood development and creating general prosperity in China.Based on the data from 2010 to 2021,we examined the spatial evolution and influence mechanism of the Chinese people's livelihood development level by using methods including the fixed base range entropy weight method,standard deviation ellipse,kernel density estimation,spatial Markov chain,and geographically and temporally weighted regression.The findings show that the Chinese people's livelihood development level has improved remarkably,with eastern region having the highest level,followed by central region,western region,and finally northeastern region;the people's livelihood development level in China is related to regional development to a certain extent,and the high-value and low-value clusters are concentrated,with the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region being stable hot spots,and Sichuan a stable cold spot.Additionally,the focus of the livelihood development has shifted from the northeast to the southwest,showing a gradual spatial trend,and the difference in the livelihood development among the four major regions is gradually increasing,with a trend of polarization between the country and the western region.Moreover,the shift in the focus of Chinese people's livelihood level has been affected by the neighboring provinces.Finally,the economic development,science and technology progress,aging population,and fiscal decentralization have positive effects,whereas urbanization has a negative effect on people's livelihood development,and the effects of these five factors exhibit spatial variations.

关 键 词：民生发展水平 空间演变 影响机理 定基极差熵权法 中国 

分 类 号：D61[政治法律—政治学] F124[政治法律—中外政治制度]