中美贸易摩擦对我国水产品进出口贸易的影响——基于双重差分法的实证检验  

The Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China's Aquatic Products Import and Export Trade:An Empirical Analysis Based on DID Method

作　　者：纪建悦[1,2] 孙明涵 JI Jianyue;SUN Minghan(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋经济》2023年第6期42-52,共11页Marine Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大研究专项[19VHQ007]。

摘　　要：利用中美贸易摩擦中涉渔政策实施前后我国双边水产品季度贸易数据,选取我国与美国水产品进出口贸易指标为实验组,与其他主要水产品进出口贸易国家数据作为对照组,运用双重差分模型,测度中美贸易摩擦对我国水产品进出口贸易的净政策效应。结果显示中美贸易摩擦的爆发对我国对美水产品出口贸易产生了负面的政策效应,但未对我国水产品进口和进出口贸易总量产生单向政策效应。基于实证结果,对常态化应对水产品贸易摩擦提出了相关的对策建议。Based on the quarterly trade data of China's bilateral aquatic products before and after the implementation of the fishery-related policy in Sino-US trade friction,China's aquatic products import and export trade indicators with the United States are selected as the experimental group,and the data of other major aquatic product import and export countries are used as the control group.The difference-in difference model is used to measure the net policy effect of Sino-US trade friction on China's aquatic product import and export trade.The results show that the outbreak of Sino-US trade friction has a negative policy effect on China's aquatic products export trade to the United States,but has no unidirectional policy effect on China's aquatic products import and total import and export trade.Based on the empirical results,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions for normalizsing the response to the trade friction of aquatic products.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 水产品贸易 渔业经济 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济] P74[天文地球—海洋科学]