RCEP框架下汇率变动对中国水产品进口贸易的影响  

Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on China's Aquatic Products Import Trade Under Rcep Framework

作　　者：孙琛[1] 陈颖 SUN Chen;CHEN Ying(School of economics and management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋经济》2023年第6期53-61,共9页Marine Economy

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系-虾蟹体系专项资金资助[CARS-48]。

摘　　要：随着中国经济增长进入新常态发展阶段,人民币汇率日益市场化,其受国际经济形势的影响也越来越大。研究汇率变动对水产品贸易的影响,并基于此提出相关政策建议,对我国水产品市场形成以国内循环为主的国内国际双循环的新格局具有现实意义。选取中国自RCEP水产品进口国中的5个主要成员国,从汇率水平变动和汇率波动两个维度,分别分析两者对水产品进口贸易的影响效应。并进一步把汇率水平变动分解为汇率的升值与贬值两个方面,基于非对称性视角,探讨汇率水平变动对中国水产品进口的非对称性影响。结果表明:在中国自印度尼西亚、泰国、新西兰的水产品进口中,汇率水平变动存在长期或短期非对称效应;中国自印度尼西亚与日本水产品进口对汇率波动存在负效应。基于此,提出相关建议。With China's economic growth entering the new normal stage of development,the RMB exchange rate is becoming more and more market-oriented,and it is increasingly influenced by the international economic situation.Studying the influence of exchange rate changes on aquatic products trade and put forward relevant policy suggestions based on this has practical significance for the formation of a new pattern of domestic and international double circulation dominated by domestic circulation in our aquatic products market.This paper selects five major member countries from RCEP aquatic products importing countries in China,and analyzes the effects of exchange rate fluctuation and exchange rate fluctuation on aquatic products import trade respectively.Furthermore,the change of exchange rate level is innovatively further decomposed into two aspects:appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate.Based on the asymmetric perspective,the asymmetric influence of exchange rate level change on China's aquatic products import is discussed.The results show that there are long-term or short-term asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in China's aquatic products imports from Indonesia,Thailand and New Zealand.China's aquatic products imports from Indonesia and Japan have negative effects on exchange rate fluctuations.Based on this,relevant suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：水产品进口 汇率水平变动 汇率波动 非对称影响 RCEP 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济] P74[天文地球—海洋科学]