基于条件过程分析的农村劳动力外流对耕地撂荒影响机制研究  

Study on the Impact Mechanism of Rural Labor Outflows on Cultivated Land Abandonment Based on the Conditional Process Analysis

作　　者：陈藜藜 邹朝晖 刘晔[2,3] CHEN Lili;ZOU Chaohui;LIU Ye(Business School,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China;School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510006,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation,Guangzhou 510006,China;Guangdong Guodi Land Planning Technology Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510650,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学商学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510006 [3]广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510006 [4]广东国地规划科技股份有限公司,广东广州510650

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2023年第11期73-83,共11页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“农户非农化视角下耕地撂荒影响机制及调控研究”(42201273);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“农户非农化视角下耕地利用方式优化研究”(GD21YGL05)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探求农村劳动力外流背景下耕地撂荒的影响机制,以期为耕地撂荒破解之道提供参考。研究方法:条件过程分析和结构方程模型。研究结果:(1)劳动力外出务工确会减少留守农业劳动力投入进而促进耕地撂荒;(2)纯务工劳动力既会直接影响耕地撂荒,也会通过影响留守农业劳动力的投入进而影响耕地撂荒,而兼业劳动力只有间接影响;(3)农户非农收入削弱了劳动力外出务工(尤其是兼业劳动力)对留守农业劳动力的负向影响进而减少耕地撂荒;(4)农业机械化提高是把“双刃剑”,既增强劳动力外出务工与留守农业劳动力投入的负相关关系,也减弱留守农业劳动力投入与耕地撂荒之间的负相关关系;(5)当且仅当农地流转市场发育度高时,无论非农收入和机械化水平高低,劳动力外流对耕地撂荒的影响将不再显著。研究结论:应着力增强留守农业劳动力对农业生产的投入,提高农业生产效率以激发留守农业劳动力农耕的内生动力;同时,对于不同非农收入和机械化水平的农村地区,应采取针对性的政策措施并推行制度创新,并配套在全国范围内促进农地流转市场的完善,减少耕地撂荒。The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact mechanism of cultivated land abandonment under the background of rural labor outflow,to provide the reference for the solution to reducing cultivated land abandonment.The research methods of conditional process analysis and structural equation model(SEM)are adopted in this study.The results show that:1)rural labor engaging in off-farm employment indeed reduces the energy or time investment in agriculture of left-behind labor and further promotes cultivated land abandonment.2)Off-farm labor not only directly affects cultivated land abandonment,but also indirectly affects cultivated land abandonment through affecting the energy or time investment of left-behind agricultural labor,while there is only the indirect effects for part-time labor.3)The off-farm income weakens the negative impact of outflowing labor(especially part-time labor)on energy and time investment of left-behind agricultural labor,thereby reducing cultivated land abandonment.4)The improvement in agricultural mechanization is a“double-edged sword”,which enhances the negative correlation between outflowing labor and investment of left-behind agricultural labor,further promotes cultivated land abandonment,and weakens the negative effects of left-behind agricultural labor on cultivated land abandonment.5)Only when cultivated land transfer market is highly developed,regardless of the off-farm income and mechanization levels,there will no longer be a significant connection between labor outflow and cultivated land abandonment,indicating that cultivated land transfer has an important regulation effect between rural labor outflow and cultivated land abandonment,that is,cultivated land transfer can make up for the negative impact of reducing investment of left-behind agricultural labor on cultivated land abandonment,or promote rural households to replace cultivated land abandonment.In conclusion,for rural areas with different levels of off-farm income and mechanization,targeted policies and measures sho

关 键 词：农村劳动力外出务工 留守农业劳动力 耕地撂荒 农地流转市场 条件过程分析 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]