考虑风险动态可变的PPP项目风险博弈研究  

Research on Risk Game of PPP Project Considering the Risk Dynamic Variability

作　　者：易欣 覃芩 周志城 YI Xin;QIN Qin;ZHOU Zhicheng(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学土木工程学院,长沙410004

出　　处：《成都工业学院学报》2024年第1期82-88,共7页Journal of Chengdu Technological University

基　　金：湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(19YBA376)。

摘　　要：针对政府与社会资本的风险合理分配问题,考虑了风险随公私合作模式(PPP)项目进展可能发生变化的特点,构建了考虑动态调整的讨价还价博弈模型,并以某市轨道交通4号线PPP项目为例进行了模拟分析。研究结果表明:1)PPP项目风险分配是包括了初始分配和再分配的动态调整过程,根据变化后果和社会资本绩效表现存在4种风险可变情景;2)谈判成本增加系数、动态调整概率和调整比例都会影响公私双方的风险分配;3)为了避免风险损失扩大,在谈判过程中双方都应采取措施不断降低谈判成本增加系数;4)根据4种风险可变情景,政府可根据绩效考核结果与预设目标差值,合理采取动态调整概率和调整比例的变动,既有助于PPP项目有效应对风险,又更好激励社会资本发挥其禀赋优势。Aiming at the issue of reasonable allocation of risks between government and social capital,and considering the characteristics of the possible changes of risks with the progress of PPP projects,a bargaining game model considering dynamic adjustment was constructed.Then,a simulation analysis was conducted using the No.4 PPP rail transit project of a city as an example.The results show that:1)PPP project risk allocation is a dynamic adjustment process that includes initial allocation and redistribution,and there are four risk-variable scenarios according to the consequences of change and the performance of social capital;2)the negotiation cost increase coefficient(NCIC),dynamic adjustment probability(DAP),and adjustment ratio(AR)all affect the risk allocation of both government and private;3)to avoid the expansion of risk loss,both sides should take measures to continuously reduce the NCIC during the renegotiation process;4)according to the four risk-variable scenarios,the government can reasonably adjust the DAP and AR according to the difference between the performance appraisal result and the preset target,which not only helps PPP project effectively deal with risks,but also effectively incentive the private to utilize its endowment advantages.

关 键 词：PPP项目风险分配 讨价还价博弈 谈判成本增加系数 动态调整概率 调整比例 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]