基于动态贝叶斯网络的核能系统可靠性评估方法研究  

Research on Reliability Evaluation Method of Nuclear Energy System Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

作　　者：魏文涛 李美福 朱大欢[1] 钟明君[1] 郭永晋 杜政瑀 蒋孝蔚 Wei Wentao;Li Meifu;Zhu Dahuan;Zhong Mingjun;Guo Yongjin;Du Zhengyu;Jiang Xiaowei(Science and Technology on Reactor System Design Technology Laboratory,Nuclear Power Institute of China,Chengdu,610213,China;MOE Key Laboratory of Marine Intelligent Equipment and System,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai,200240,China)

机构地区：[1]中国核动力研究设计院核反应堆系统设计技术重点实验室,成都610213 [2]上海交通大学海洋智能装备与系统教育部重点实验室,上海200240

出　　处：《核动力工程》2023年第S02期109-114,共6页Nuclear Power Engineering

摘　　要：针对传统故障树分析法着眼于设计阶段对静态系统进行可靠性分析,无法分析系统运行时的动态时序问题,提出一种基于动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的可靠性分析方法,该方法以动态故障树为桥梁,由故障树得到DBN模型。研究中选取典型压水堆主给水系统,采用DBN的方法,对系统进行可靠性分析、故障诊断、敏感性分析。得到的可靠性数据相比传统分析方法更加接近真实值,为运行决策提供了更加准确的依据,能够提高核电厂的经济性。Aiming at the problem that the reliability analysis of static system can not analyze the dynamic time sequence of the running system when the traditional fault tree analysis focuses on the design stage,a reliability analysis method based on dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)is proposed,which takes the dynamic fault tree as the bridge and obtains the DBN model from the fault tree.In this study,a typical PWR main water supply system is selected,and the reliability analysis,fault diagnosis and sensitivity analysis of the system are carried out by using DBN method.Compared with the traditional analysis method,the reliability data obtained is closer to the real value,which provides a more accurate basis for operation decision-making and can improve the economy of nuclear power plants.

关 键 词：动态贝叶斯网络(DBN) 可靠性分析 故障诊断 主给水系统 

分 类 号：TL364.1[核科学技术—核技术及应用]