经济增长、产业结构升级与民航运输——基于省级面板数据的PVAR实证研究  

Economic Growth,Industrial Structure Upgrading and Civil Aviation Transport——Empirical Study on PVAR Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：丁勇[1] 王变琼 刘颖 DING Yong;WANG Bianqiong;LIU Ying(School of Economics and Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Tianjin Branch of Huaxia Bank,Tianjin 300061,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学,经济与管理学院,天津300300 [2]华夏银行天津分行,天津300061

出　　处：《综合运输》2023年第12期3-9,共7页China Transportation Review

基　　金：2021年度天津市教育科学规划一般课题“民航特色的经济与金融专业实践教学体系的研究与实践”(CIE210155)。

摘　　要：为了研究经济增长、产业结构升级与民航运输之间的相互关系,本文选取2000-2019年我国31省、市、自治区的面板数据,构建面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型进行实证分析。研究表明经济增长、产业结构升级与民航运输之间均存在双向的因果关系;经济增长相对于另外两者来说都具有更高的贡献度;从长期来看,经济增长和产业结构升级对民航运输均存在先强后弱的促进作用,经济增长与产业结构升级之间的双向正面影响由峰值慢慢收敛于零。最后,根据结论提出相应对策建议。In order to study the relationship between economic growth,industrial structure upgrading and civil aviation transport,this paper selects panel data from 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China from 2000 to 2019,and constructs panel vector auto regression model(PVAR)for empirical analysis.The results show that there is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth,industrial structure upgrading and civil aviation transport.Economic growth has a higher contribution degree than the other two.In the long run,both economic growth and industrial structure upgrading have a strong and then weak promoting effect on civil aviation transport,and the two-way positive impact between economic growth and industrial structure upgrading gradually converges from the peak to zero.Finally,according to the conclusion of the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

关 键 词：经济增长 产业结构升级 民航运输 PVAR模型 实证分析 

分 类 号：F56[经济管理—产业经济] F121