农民种植决策对价格上涨和政策支持做出“理性”反应了吗——基于国内玉米市场省级面板数据的实证  

Have Farmers Made a Rational Response to Price Increase and Policy Support in Planting Decisions:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data of Domestic Corn Market

作　　者：孟昌[1] 齐驰名 倪国华[1] MENG Chang;QI Chiming;NI Guohua

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2023年第11期38-48,共11页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“深入实施藏粮于地、藏粮于技战略研究”(编号:21ZDA055);国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球贸易新格局下中国构建自主型粮食安全体系的理论路径与政策模拟研究”(编号:72073008);中国粮食研究培训中心委托课题“统筹利用两个市场保障我国粮食安全研究”。

摘　　要：2020年国内玉米去库存阶段基本结束,玉米价格大幅上涨并创造历史新高,影响国内粮食市场安全与稳定。研究不同地区农户种植决策对价格和政策支持的理性反应,对长期做好粮食市场保供稳市具有重要意义。本文采用国内玉米种植面积和价格的省级面板数据,利用玉米临储收购政策的准自然实验进行实证分析。结果显示,现阶段国内主产区农民行为具有“经济理性”,玉米价格上涨显著地激励了农户种植玉米的积极性。玉米主产区和非主产区的生产基础不同,对玉米价格的敏感度存在显著差异,越是在主产区,其“理性”特征越明显,而非主产区农民没有表现出上述“理性”特征。玉米临储收购政策提高了种植收益的确定性,主产区的政策执行不仅促进产区面积增加,也能带动非主产区种植面积的增加。建议提高对国内粮食价格波动的容忍度,增加国内农民粮食种植的抗风险能力,进而提高粮食种植积极性。另外要严守耕地红线,采取差异化补贴,重点保护核心粮食产区,来保障国内粮食的长期供给。In 2020,the domestic corn destocking phase came to an end,where the price of corn has risen sharply and hit a new historical record,which is affecting the security and stability of domestic grain market at the same time.Studying the rational responses of farmers planting decisions in different regions in terms of price and policy support is of great significance for ensuring the long-term stable supply of food market.This paper adopts the provincial panel data of domestic corn planting area and price and uses a quasi-natural experiment of the purchase policy of corn to conduct empirical analysis.The results show that the behavior of farmers in the major domestic production areas at this stage is economically rational,which incarnated the sharply increasing corn prices where stimulated farmers'enthusiasm for planting corn.There are significant differences in sensitivity to corn prices.Their"rational"characteristics is more obuious in core production areas.Farmers in the non-main production areas do not show the above-mentioned rational characteristics.The purchase policy of temporary corn reserves has improved the certainty of planting income,allowing the implementation of policies in the main producing areas to drive the increase in planting areas across the country.The paper proposes to increase the tolerance of domestic grain price fluctuations and increase the risk resistance of domestic farmers in grain planting,which can enhance the enthusiasm for grain planting.On the other hand,we must strictly observe the red line of cultivated land,adopt differentiated subsidies,and focus on protecting core grain production areas to ensure the long-term supply of domestic grain.

关 键 词：农民理性 种植面积 玉米价格 临储收购政策 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]