基于嵌套结构理论的亚太区域生产网络稳定性分析  

Stability analysis of production networks in the ASIA-pacific region based on nested structure theory

作　　者：殷思梦 邢李志[1] 张鹏杨 段玉婉[2] YIN Simeng;XING Lizhi;ZHANG Pengyang;DUAN Yuwan(College of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of International Trade and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,北京102206

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2023年第11期3214-3229,共16页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71971006,72273009,71774008);北京市教育委员会科学研究计划(KZ20221000 5013)。

摘　　要：近年来,随着英国脱欧、中美贸易摩擦和新冠疫情暴发等国际重大事件的相继发生,区域经济一体化成为众多经济体为了抵御经济危机而做出的必然选择,制造业回流、产业链外迁和生产近岸化等趋势日益明显,使得区域经济系统稳定性研究成为一个重要方向.本文基于生态学嵌套结构理论的全新视角,从测度、仿真和演化三个角度对亚太区域生产网络的稳定性进行了实证分析.研究表明:全球/区域生产网络具有典型的“核心-外围”拓扑结构,可以通过网络科学中的局域世界演化网络模型解释其演化机制和经济学意义,并采取嵌套性指标测度全球/区域经济系统的稳定性;位于嵌套区域的广生性产业部门对生产网络发挥了稳定作用,狭生性产业部门则给生产网络的稳定性造成了风险;基于对嵌套性指标的仿真分析,发现国家(地区)及其产业部门在生产网络中的功能和地位与其经济发展水平和抗风险能力高度相关;基于对区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)实现情况的演化分析,证实RCEP成员国之间贸易量的增加将增强亚太区域(跨境)生产网络的稳定性,进而促进相关国家(地区)的经济发展和产业结构优化.In the wake of epochal international developments,such as Brexit,the Sino-American trade tensions,and global health crises exemplified by the outbreak of what is referred to as Newcastle pneumonia,the impetus towards regional economic integration has escalated as a strategic imperative for economies seeking resilience against multifaceted economic shocks.Concomitantly,there is a discernible shift characterized by the re-shoring of manufacturing,offshoring of industrial chains,and domestication of production processes.This shifting landscape necessitates rigorous investigation into the stability of regional economic systems.Leveraging an innovative framework premised on ecological nested structure theory, this study undertakes a tripartiteempirical examination of production network stability within the Asia-Pacific realm throughmeasurement, simulation, and evolutionary analyses. Our findings illuminate that the morphologyof global and regional production networks conforms to a “core-periphery” topology. Theevolutionary dynamics and concomitant economic ramifications of this structure find congruencewith the Local World Evolutionary Network model within network science. Furthermore, weposit that nested metrics offer robust quantification of the stability of these economic systems.Notably, the generalist industrial sectors that are situated within the nested core contribute tothe network’s stability, whereas specialist sectors induce potential destabilization. Simulationanalyses using nested metrics reveal a strong correlation between a nation (region)’s role andits position within the production network, and the nation (region)’s level of economic developmentand capacity for risk mitigation. Moreover, an evolutionary examination of the RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) affirms that augmenting trade volumes amongmember states fortifies the stability of (cross-border) production networks in the Asia-Pacific region,which, in turn, fosters economic growth and industrial optimization within the

关 键 词：嵌套结构理论 区域全面经济伙伴关系协定 中间产品贸易 全球生产网络 稳定性 

分 类 号：N94-0[自然科学总论—系统科学]