NGFS第四版气候情景方案及其应用研究  

NGFS Publishes the Fourth Edition of Climate Scenarios and Related Policy Recommendations for Applications

作　　者：李研妮[1] LI Yan-ni(The People’s Bank of China,Chongqing Municipal Branch)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行重庆市分行,重庆401147

出　　处：《当代金融研究》2023年第12期50-60,共11页Journal of Contemporary Financial Research

摘　　要：央行与监管机构绿色金融网络组织(NGFS)于2023年11月发布了气候情景的第四个版本。相对于第三个版本,第四版情景方案引入两个新情景方案,同时新增加了两个物理风险,即干旱和热浪自然灾害。第四版情景方案内容主要包括:一是对7类情景假设概念及相关特点的阐述;二是NGFS第四版情景分析中涉及的模型框架;三是利用NGFS情景方案分析气候变化对宏观经济金融的相关影响。针对转型风险,依据7类情景假设,对碳价格和碳排放、相关能源需求和价格以及未来对能源投资的影响进行了分析。针对物理风险,利用模型区分了慢性(Chronic physical risks)和急性物理风险(Acute physical risks)对GDP的影响,同时对目前急性物理风险建模面临的相关困难进行了总结。本文对上述相关内容进行了编译,并结合国外机构对气候风险情景分析的政策要求及相关实践,针对我国气候情景分析实践中存在的问题,对金融机构的气候环境风险情景分析测试给出相关政策建议,以供决策参考。The Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System(NGFS)published its fourth version of the climate scenario in November 2023.Compared to the third version,the fourth vintage introduces two new acute physical risk hazards,droughts and heatwaves.The contents of the fourth edition of scenario plan mainly include:First,the concept of 7 types of scenario hypothesis and related characteristics are expounded.Second,the model framework involved in the fourth edition of NGFS scenario analysis;Thirdly,the NGFS scenario is used to analyze the related impacts of climate change on macroeconomic and finance.Based on seven scenarios,carbon prices and emissions,as well as related energy demand and prices,and future impacts on energy investment are analyzed.For physical risks,the model is used to distinguish impacts of Chronic physical risks and Acute physical risks on GDP.At the same time,Challenges to acute physical risk modelling are summarized.This paper compiled the above related content,combined with the policy requirements and related practices of foreign institutions for climate risk scenario analysis,and aimed at the problems existing in China's climate scenario analysis practice,gave relevant policy suggestions grounded on financial institutions'climate and environmental risk scenario analysis test to decision-making reference.

关 键 词：NGFS 气候风险情景 物理风险 宏观经济 金融体系 

分 类 号：F831.0[经济管理—金融学]