减税降费政策对宏观经济影响及最优税率选择——基于可计算一般均衡模型的模拟分析  

The Macroeconomic Impact of Tax and Fee Reduction Policy and the Choice of Optimal Tax Rate,Based on CGE Model

作　　者：陈刚[1] 王立洋 CHEN Gang;WANG Li-yang(People’s Bank of China Anhui Branch;People's Bank of China Lu'an Branch)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行安徽省分行,安徽合肥230091 [2]中国人民银行六安市分行,安徽六安237006

出　　处：《当代金融研究》2023年第12期61-76,共16页Journal of Contemporary Financial Research

摘　　要：减税降费政策的持续推进会对我国未来经济发展形成怎样的影响?各税种是否存在一个对经济增长的最优税率?这是后疫情时代我国财税政策不得不面对和回答的重大现实问题之一。本文通过可计算一般均衡模型(CGE模型)的量化分析显示,减税特别是增值税、所得税各税种的减税政策能够提振经济,但是降低关税税率对经济增长的效应并不明显;从减税对三大产业的影响来看,资本增值税、个人所得税减少对制造业影响较大,劳动增值税和关税减少对农业、服务业影响较大;从最优税率来看,资本增值税、劳动增值税和个人所得税存在符合经济增长的最优税率,而企业所得税和关税并不存在。因此,应进一步下调增值税税率,以应对当前的经济复苏乏力;加快推进个人所得税改革,通过持续增加居民可支配收入促进消费恢复;综合考虑增值税、所得税以及关税减税的不同经济效应,提升结构性减税政策的精准性。What impact will the continuous promotion of tax and fee reduction policies have on China's economic development in the future? Is there an optimal tax rate for economic growth? This is one of the important issues that China's fiscal and tax policies have to face and answer in the post-Covid-19 era.The quantitative analysis of the computable general equilibrium model(CGE model) shows that tax reduction policies,especially those of value-added tax and income tax,can boost economic growth,but the reduction of tariff rates has no obvious effect.From the perspective of the impact of tax reduction on the three main industries,the capital value-added tax and individual income tax reduction have a greater impact on the manufacturing industry,and the labor value-added tax and tariff reduction have a greater impact on agriculture and service industry.From the perspective of the optimal tax rate,there are optimal tax rates for capital value-added tax,labor value-added tax that are in line with economic growth,but there are no optimal tax rates for corporate income tax and tariff that meet economic growth.Therefore,the value-added tax rate should be further reduced to cope with the current sluggish economic growth.The reform of individual income tax need to speed up in order to promote the recovery of consumption by continuously increasing the disposable income of residents.We should comprehensively consider the different economic effects of value-added tax,income tax and tariff reduction to improve the accuracy of structural tax reduction policies.

关 键 词：减税降费 可计算一般均衡 最优税率 

分 类 号：F810.4[经济管理—财政学]