同盟交易、国内政治与日本、菲律宾对华政策的趋同性(2010—)  

Alliance Deals,Domestic Politics,and the Convergence of Japan and the Philippines′ Policies Towards China (2010- )

作　　者：李大陆 Li Dalu(School of Marxism,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学马克思主义学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期92-105,共14页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“南海争端国国内政治结构变迁与对华‘对冲’行为研究”(19CGJ013)。

摘　　要：日本与菲律宾尽管实力和国情具有重大差异,但2010年以来的对华政策却表现出重要的趋同特征。探究其对华政策的共性和一般规律,对于中国充分利用战略机遇,应对大国竞争至关重要。为此,需要基于同盟交易和国内政治两个要素构建理论框架,辨识两国对华政策的形成机制。在政治精英具有对抗偏好的情况下,如果同盟交易呈现模糊激励或对抗激励,此时无论国内政治权力的集中程度如何变化,日、菲两国执政者主要因应精英偏好实施对华制衡;如果同盟交易呈现合作激励,执政者选择何种对华政策,主要受到政权集中度的影响。在政权集中度高的情况下,决策者主要因应同盟交易选择对华缓和,但是在政权集中度低的情况下,决策者主要因应精英偏好选择对华制衡。由于上述规律的作用,2010年以来的日、菲对华政策经历了从制衡,到缓和,再到制衡的趋同性演化。揭示两国政策的变化规律及形成机制,有助于中国协调运用战略军事与经济手段,通过创造和利用缓和窗口更好地维护自身安全利益。Despite significant differences in strength and national conditions between Japan and the Philippines,their policies towards China since 2010 have shown significant convergent characteristics.Exploring the commonalities and general laws of their policies towards China is crucial for China to fully utilize strategic opportunities and respond to competition from major powers.Therefore,it is necessary to construct a theoretical framework based on two elements:alliance deal and domestic politics,and identify the formation mechanism of the two countries' policies towards China.In the cases of political elites with adversarial preferences,if the alliance deal presents fuzzy or adversarial incentives,regardless of the degree of concentration of domestic political power,the rulers of Japan and the Philippines mainly implement balance policy on China in response to the preferences of the elites;If the alliance deal presents cooperative incentives,the choice of policies on China by the ruling party is mainly influenced by the concentration degree of political power.In the cases of high political power concentration,decision-makers mainly choose détente policy towards China in response to alliance deal incentives,but in the cases of low political power concentration,decision-makers mainly choose to balance against China in response to elite preferences.Due to the effects of the above laws,the policies of Japan and the Philippines towards China have undergone a convergent evolution since 2010,from balance,to detente,and then to balance.Revealing the changing patterns and formation mechanisms of policies between the two countries can help China coordinate strategic military and economic means,and better safeguard its own security interests by creating and utilizing a window of relaxation.

关 键 词：政权集中度 同盟交易 精英偏好 对华政策 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学]