国际农业合作与中国农业经济增长——来自“一带一路”倡议的准自然实验  

International Agricultural Cooperation and China’s Agricultural Economic Growth—A Quasi-natural Experiment from the“Belt and Road”Initiative

作　　者：袁元 YUAN Yuan

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,西安710119

出　　处：《世界农业》2024年第1期27-40,共14页World Agriculture

基　　金：陕西省教育厅软科学一般项目“陕西省自由贸易区贸易便利化制度创新思路研究”(2020KRM104);陕西省社会科学基金重点项目“基于政策效应评估的脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴统筹衔接机制研究”(2020D038)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议作为构建“人类命运共同体”的具体实践,是中国参与国际农业合作,实现农业“双循环”发展的重要平台。本文以“一带一路”倡议为准自然实验,选择2010—2021年省级农业面板数据,运用倾向得分匹配双重差分法检验了倡议对沿线省份农业经济增长的政策效应及其作用机理。研究发现,“一带一路”倡议可以显著促进沿线省份的农业经济增长,且效应总体呈波动递增的变化趋势。异质性分析表明,“一带一路”倡议的农业经济增长促进效应存在区位与民族层面的差异,对沿线东部地区的效应最大,西部地区次之,中部地区最小;对西部民族地区的政策效应强于非民族地区,并超过了西部地区总体的增长效应。机制检验显示,“一带一路”倡议的农业经济增长效应能够通过农业基础设施建设投资和农业金融发展来驱动,且农业金融发展的驱动效果相对较大。从长远上看,中国在“一带一路”背景下获得的农业经济增长效应的内在驱动潜力尚未充分释放。The“Belt and Road”Initiative,as a concrete practice of building a community of human destiny,is an important platform for China to participate in international agricultural cooperation and realize the dual circulation development of agriculture.Based on the“Belt and Road”Initiative as a quasi-natural experiment,this article examines the policy effects of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on agricultural economic growth and its mechanism of action in the provinces along the route,based on the provincial agricultural panel data from 2010-2021,using the propensity score matching double-difference method.The study examines the policy effects of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on the agricultural growth of the provinces along the route and its mechanism of action.The study finds that the“Belt and Road”Initiative can significantly promote the agricultural economic growth of the provinces along the routes,and the impacts generally show a fluctuating and increasing trend.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the agricultural economic growth promotion effect of the“Belt and Road”Initiative has differences in location and ethnicity,with the largest effect in the eastern part of the route,followed by the western part and the smallest in the central part of the route;and the policy effect on the ethnic areas in the western part of the route is stronger than that on the non-ethnic areas,and exceeds the growth effect in the western part of the route as a whole.Mechanism tests show that the agricultural growth effect of the“Belt and Road”Initiative can be realized through the driving paths of investment in agricultural infrastructure construction and agricultural financial development,and that the driving effect of agricultural financial development is relatively large.In the long run,the inherent driving potential of China’s agricultural economic growth effect in the context of the“Belt and Road”Initiative has not yet been fully unleashed.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 国际农业合作 农业经济增长 倾向得分匹配双重差分法 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济] F125