基于DEMATEL-ISM方法的水电站机组检修作业安全事故致因链分析  

Analysis of safety accident causation chain in hydropower station maintenance operations based on DEMATEL-ISM method

作　　者：晋良海[1,2,3,4] 张荣昊 明华军 李钰涵[1] 李晨曦 邹颂香 JIN Lianghai;ZHANG Ronghao;MING Huajun;LI Yuhan;LI Chenxi;ZOU Songxiang(College of Water Conservancy and Environment,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydropower Engineering Construction and Management,Yichang 443002,China;Safety Production Standardization Evaluation Center,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Anhuan Technology Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [3]三峡大学安全生产标准化评审中心,湖北宜昌443002 [4]湖北安环科技有限公司,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2024年第1期37-43,51,共8页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52179136);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(21YJA630038)。

摘　　要：针对水电站机组检修作业种类和危险因素多、安全事故频发等问题,通过文献挖掘与专家访谈方式,对水电站机组检修作业安全影响因素类别进行了划分。基于DEMATEL-ISM方法,构建了安全事故致因多层次递阶ISM模型来确定事故致因因素层级,通过剖析事故致因因素的中心度和权重,挖掘关键致因因素和推求事故致因链的路径权重,厘定关键致因链。采用该模型对某水电站致因链进行了分析,结果表明,安全检查不到位为关键致因因素,“安全检查不到位→违规作业→设备的问题→粉尘、油漆等有害物质”为关键致因链。Aiming at the problems of diversified maintenance operations,numerous risk factors,and frequent safety accidents in hydropower station units,the safety factors affecting the maintenance operations of hydropower station units are classified through literature mining and expert interviews.Based on the DEMATEL-ISM method,a multi-level hierarchical ISM model of safety accident causes was constructed to determine the level of accident causes.By analyzing the centrality and weight of accident causes,mining the key causal factors and deriving the path weights of the accident causal chain,the key causal chain was determined.The model was used to analyze the key causal chain of a hydropower station as an example.The results show that inadequate safety inspections are the key cause factor,and the key causation chain is inadequate safety inspections→illegal operations→equipment problems→dusts,paints,and other harmful substances.

关 键 词：水电站机组检修 DEMATEL-ISM方法 事故致因链 致因因素权重 路径权重 

分 类 号：TV738[水利工程—水利水电工程]