Over-limit risk assessment method of integrated energy system considering source-load correlation  

作　　者：Ying Wang Xiaojun Wang Yizhi Zhang Yigang Zhang Zekai Xu 

机构地区：[1]School of Electrical Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,P.R.China

出　　处：《Global Energy Interconnection》2023年第6期661-674,共14页全球能源互联网（英文版）

基　　金：supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51977005)。

摘　　要：In an integrated energy system,source-load multiple uncertainties and correlations lead to an over-limit risk in operating state,including voltage,temperature,and pressure over-limit.Therefore,efficient probabilistic energy flow calculation methods and risk assessment theories applicable to integrated energy systems are crucial.This study proposed a probabilistic energy flow calculation method based on polynomial chaos expansion for an electric-heat-gas integrated energy system.The method accurately and efficiently calculated the over-limit probability of the system state variables,considering the coupling conditions of electricity,heat,and gas,as well as uncertainties and correlations in renewable energy unit outputs and multiple types of loads.To further evaluate and quantify the impact of uncertainty factors on the over-limit risk,a global sensitivity analysis method for the integrated energy system based on the analysis of covariance theory is proposed.This method considered the source-load correlation and aimed to identify the key uncertainty factors that influence stable operation.Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method achieved accuracy to that of the Monte Carlo method while significantly reducing calculation time.It effectively quantified the over-limit risk under the presence of multiple source-load uncertainties.

关 键 词：Probabilistic energy flow Polynomial chaos expansion CORRELATION Risk assessment Analysis of covariance 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]