核电技术的网络韧性评估(2001—2022年)——基于灰色统计方法的分析  

Network Resilience Assessment of Nuclear Power Technologies from 2001 to 2022——A Grey Statistics Analysis

作　　者：王晋伟[1] WANG Jinwei(Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期32-46,共15页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金“低碳技术演化机理及应用研究”(2022M710369)。

摘　　要：核电技术可以提供低碳排放、可靠、可持续和多元化的能源供应,具有韧性的全球核电技术贸易网络,有助于满足全球不断增长的能源需求,也有助于缓解气候变化。然而,目前对于核电技术贸易的网络韧性还有待进一步深入研究。为了科学评估核电技术的网络韧性,基于2001—2022年的核电技术进出口贸易数据,构建11个韧性指标,构建灰色统计评估模型,对全球、11个区域和32个国家三个层面进行核电技术的网络韧性评估。结果表明,在全球层面,德国和美国的核电技术贸易大国地位比较明显,韧性指标变化多样,全球的核电技术网络韧性不稳定。在区域层面,核电技术贸易模式由“区域内”为主转为“区域间”为主,非洲的核电技术网络韧性持续较好,其他区域的韧性不稳定。在国家层面,重要的核电技术出口国家是俄罗斯、德国和美国,重要的核电技术进口国家是法国、中国和乌克兰。此外,建议优化核电技术贸易结构,保障国家核电技术网络韧性。Nuclear power technology can provide low-carbon emissions and a reliable,sustainable,and diversified energy supply.A resilient global nuclear power technology trade network can help meet the growing global energy demand and alleviate climate change.However,further in-depth research is needed on network resilience of nuclear power technology trade.In order to scientifically evaluate the network resilience of nuclear power technology,based on the import and export trade data of nuclear power technology from 2001 to 2022,11 resilience indicators were constructed,and a grey statistical evaluation model was constructed to evaluate the network resilience of nuclear power technology globally,in 11 regions,and 32 countries.The results indicate that at global level,Germany and the United States have a more prominent position as significant trading countries in nuclear power technology,with diverse resilience indicators and unstable resilience in the global nuclear power technology network.At regional level,the nuclear power technology trade model has shifted from“intra-regional”to“inter-regional.”The resilience of Africa’s nuclear power technology network continues to be good,while the resilience of other regions’is unstable.At national level,crucial nuclear power technology exporting countries are Russia,Germany,and the United States,while important nuclear power technology importing countries are France,China,and Ukraine.In addition,it is recommended that the trade structure of nuclear power technology should be optimized to improve the resilience of the national nuclear power technology network.

关 键 词：核电技术 网络韧性评估 灰色统计 贸易网络 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]