基于不同时间尺度的贵州沿河县干旱风险分析及评估研究  

Drought risk analysis and assessment in Yanhe County of Guizhou Province based on different time scales

作　　者：王鹏[1] WANG Peng(Guizhou Academy of Hydraulic Sciences,Guiyang 550002)

机构地区：[1]贵州省水利科学研究院,贵阳550002

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第12期52-56,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：贵州水利科技项目(2020ZC06);贵州省农业攻关计划项目(黔科合支撑〔2016〕2561号)。

摘　　要：2022年,长江流域发生较为严重的大范围干旱。根据长系列降水历史资料,以位于长江流域的贵州沿河县作为分析研究对象,结合贵州省现有干旱标准及正态信息扩散原理,对沿河县2022年不同时间尺度下的干旱程度进行定性和定量分析,并对沿河县三季度、四季度、8—10月及全年各等级干旱进行风险分析。分析表明,从季尺度来看,沿河县2022年发生中旱及以上标准的有三季度、四季度、8—10月,其中8—10月达到重旱标准,重现期为95 a;从年尺度来看,沿河县2022年干旱为中旱,重现期为32 a。In 2022,the Yangtze River Basin suffered from a large range of severe drought.Based on a long series of historical precipitation data,this paper takes Yanhe County in Guizhou Province located in the Yangtze River Basin,as the object of analysis and research,and combines the existing drought standards and the analysis method of normal information diffusion principle in Guizhou,to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis of the drought degree of Yanhe County in 2022 at different time scales,and to carry out risk analysis of the third quarters,fourth quarters,August-October,and the whole year for the occurrence of various levels of drought in Yanhe County.The analysis shows that from the perspective of seasonal scale,there are third quarter,fourth quarter and August-October with moderate drought above the standard in Yanhe County in 2022,of which August-October meets the standard of severe drought with a return period of 95 years;From the perspective of annual scale,the drought in Yanhe County in 2022 is moderate,with a return period of 32 years.

关 键 词：贵州沿河县 降水距平百分率 正态信息扩散原理 2022年干旱 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]