中国新旧气候态降水特征差异比较及对旱涝的可能影响分析  

Comparison and analysis of precipitation characteristics between the new and old climatology in China and its possible influence on drought and flood

作　　者：刘佳伟 张麓瑀 侯爱中[1] LIU Jiawei;ZHANG Luyu;HOU Aizhong(Information Center,Ministry of Water Resources of China,Beijing 100053)

机构地区：[1]水利部信息中心,北京100053

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2023年第12期57-63,79,共8页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3900601);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022136)。

摘　　要：了解中国区域新旧降水气候态空间形态和年际变率的变化有助于降水天气和短期气候预报业务工作,本文使用ERA5和CMA-RA再分析资料对其进行了比较分析。ERA5和CMA-RA再分析资料表现出明显相反的新旧气候态变化,由于CMA-RA再分析资料引入了更多中国地区的气象常规观测资料,因而采信CMA-RA再分析资料结果。新降水气候态相较旧气候态整体降水增加,西南、华北和江南地区尤为明显。各个季节中,夏季降水在华南、江南、西南和华北的显著增加是导致全年降水增加的最重要原因。另外,春季华南地区降水明显减少;秋冬两季变化较小。中国大陆区域年降水量过去40 a呈现上升趋势,年际波动增大;大部分地区降水强度等级增强,暴雨及以上等级降雨频次快速增长,在华南、江南、江淮、黄淮及四川等地部分地区占比明显提升。各大流域中,长江、海河和珠江流域洪涝风险增大,旱涝转换问题凸显,暴雨洪水挑战升级。It is beneficial for the short-time forecast and long-term climate projections of the precipitation to investigate the differences in the spatial pattern and yearly variety between new and old precipitation climatology.The ERA5 and CMA-RA reanalysis data reveal the opposite precipitation changes between the new and old precipitation climatology.We tend to trust the CMA-RA re-analysis data more because CMA-RA re-analysis data assimilate more conventional observations data in China.The precipitation increases in new climatology compared to the old one,especially in southwest and north China,and the Jiangnan area.The significant increase in summer precipitation in South China,Jiangnan,Southwest,and North China is the most important reason for the increase in annual precipitation in various seasons.In addition,there is a significant decrease in precipitation in southern China during spring;The precipitation in autumn and winter shows little change.In the past 40 years,mean precipitation in China shows a clear upward trend and increased yearly variability.The precipitation intensity ranks rise in most of China.The frequency of torrential precipitation increases rapidly,leading to a higher ratio of torrential precipitation to total precipitation in south China,the Jiangnan,the Jianghuai,and the Huanhuai areas and Sichuna province.Among the major basins,the Yangtze,Haihe and the Pearl River basins have increased the risk of floods,the swift conversion of the drought and flood,and upgraded the challenge of torrential precipitation.

关 键 词：新旧气候态 中国降水特征 再分析资料 年际变率 降水等级 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]