基于层次分析法的城市防洪风险综合评价研究  

Research on comprehensive evaluation of urban flood control risk based on analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：徐苏 方勇 谢超 周明明 Xu Su;Fang Yong;Xie Chao;Zhou Mingming(Nanjing Water Resources Planning and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210000,China;Jiangsu WaterResources Engineering Science and Technology Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210000,China;College of Water Resources and Hydropower,Hehai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Jiangsu Provincial Water Resources Survey,Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Yangzhou 225127,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市水利规划设计院股份有限公司,江苏南京210000 [2]江苏省水利工程科技咨询股份有限公司,江苏南京210000 [3]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [4]江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,江苏扬州225127

出　　处：《吉林水利》2024年第1期71-75,共5页Jilin Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC1508603);江苏省水利科技项目(2022011)。

摘　　要：为了提高评价城市防洪风险的准确度,本文根据影响城市防洪的因素构建了城市防洪风险评价体系,确定了各评价指标在不同风险等级所对应的取值范围,并进一步结合层次分析法(AHP)计算了指标层的权重及目标层的风险等级。由工程案例计算可知,基于AHP计算的风险等级与城市防洪体系的安全鉴定报告结论一致,说明该风险评价方法具有工程可靠性和适用性。该方法也可为其他城市防洪体系的建立和风险评价提供新的途径。To improve the accuracy of urban flood control risks evaluation,this article constructs an urban flood control risk evaluation system based on the factors that affect urban flood control,and determines the corresponding value ranges for different risk levels of each evaluation index.Furthermore,the weights of the indicator layer and the risk level of the target layer were calculated using Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).From the engineering case calculation,it can be seen that the risk level calculated based on AHP is consistent with the conclusion of the safety appraisal report of the urban flood control system,indicating that the risk assessment method has engineering reliability and applicability.This method can provide a new approach for establishment and risk assessment of flood control systems in other cities.

关 键 词：城市防洪 风险等级 层次分析法(AHP) 评价体系 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]