中国粮食体系韧性:水平测度及动态演进  

China's Grain System Resilience:Level Measurement and Dynamic Evolution

作　　者：左秀平[1,3] 叶林祥[2] ZUO Xiu-ping;YE Lin-xiang(Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210003,China;School of Economics,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210003,China;School of Business,Jiangsu Open University,Nanjing 210013,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院,江苏南京210003 [2]南京财经大学经济学院,江苏南京210003 [3]江苏开放大学商学院,江苏南京210013

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期88-101,共14页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA116);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273061)。

摘　　要：分析粮食体系韧性理论内涵的基础上,从风险抵抗能力、适应调整能力和创新转型能力三个维度构建粮食体系韧性综合评价指标体系,基于2011—2021年中国31个省份数据,采用熵值法、Moran’s I指数、Kernel核密度、空间Markov链、Dagum基尼系数等方法对中国粮食体系韧性进行测度与评价。研究发现:中国粮食体系韧性提升明显,但整体水平较低,粮食主销区粮食体系韧性较高;中国粮食体系韧性分维度指数值从高到低依次是风险抵抗能力、创新转型能力和适应调整能力。中国粮食体系韧性具有显著的空间正相关性,多数省份位于高—高集聚区和低—低集聚区,空间集聚程度逐渐降低。中国粮食体系韧性水平在波动中上升,具有一定的梯度效应,但极化效应较弱;相邻地区空间滞后水平的提升能够增加本地区向上转移的概率。中国粮食体系韧性的区域差异明显但存在一定的收敛趋势,组间差异及超变密度是粮食体系韧性发展不平衡不充分的主要原因。Based on the analysis of the theoretical connotation of grain system resilience,this article builds a comprehensive evaluation index system from three dimensions of risk resistance,adaptive adjustment capacity and innovation and transformation ability,measures and evaluates China’s grain system resilience from 2011 to 2021 with entropy method,Moran’s I index,Kernel kernel density,spatial Markov chain,Dagum Gini coefficient,etc.The study finds that:(1)China's grain system resilience has improved significantly,but the overall level is low;Its level in the main grain marketing areas is higher;the index value of sub-dimension ranks,in descending order,are the risk resistance,innovation and transformation ability,and adaptive adjustment capacity.(2)China's grain system resilience has a significant positive spatial correlation,most provinces are located in high-high agglomeration area and low-low agglomeration area,and the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually decreases.(3)The level of China's grain system resilience rises in fluctuation with a certain gradient effect,but the polarization effect is weak;the increase in the spatial lag level of adjacent regions can increase the probability of upward transfer in this region.(4)The regional differences are obvious but there is a certain trend of convergence,and the inter-group differences and hypervariable density are the main reasons for the unbalanced and insufficient development of the toughness of the grain system.

关 键 词：粮食安全 粮食体系韧性 创新转型能力 区域差异 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]